I'm from Hong Kong and will arrive Cairns few days before the eclipse. This is my first time going to the Australia and I basically know nothing about the Cairns area.
I will stay in Cairns downtown where the sunrise and first contact will be obscured by a hill in the east. From Google Earth I find the height of the hill is about 700m. I wonder if cloud would form on top of it?
I won't drive, so my mobility is highly restricted. I am considering Palm Cove where sunrise is not obscured. Would that be a better choice than the downtown? If I want to go inland, is Mareeba the only choice with public transport?
I'm from Hong Kong and will arrive Cairns few days before the eclipse. This is my first time going to the Australia and I basically know nothing about the Cairns area.
I will stay in Cairns downtown where the sunrise and first contact will be obscured by a hill in the east. From Google Earth I find the height of the hill is about 700m. I wonder if cloud would form on top of it?
I won't drive, so my mobility is highly restricted. I am considering Palm Cove where sunrise is not obscured. Would that be a better choice than the downtown? If I want to go inland, is Mareeba the only choice with public transport?
Thank you!
Hi there,
I too am staying in the Cairns town centre, I left it too late to hire a car and booked to early to realise that the Cairns town centre was not the best vantage point. So just a few days ago I booked myself into a Catamaran Cruise for approx AU$200 leaving Cairns at 3am breakfast and drinks included and returning to the harbour at 8am. There might be some cruises and space still available, if you are interested I can put you in touch with an agent.
Being on a boat does not worry me because I am not planning on taking photographic equipment like others, I prefer to watch my first one in full without the hassle.
Others may have better suited suggestions for you too. Good luck
I'm from Hong Kong and will arrive Cairns few days before the eclipse. This is my first time going to the Australia and I basically know nothing about the Cairns area.
I will stay in Cairns downtown where the sunrise and first contact will be obscured by a hill in the east. From Google Earth I find the height of the hill is about 700m. I wonder if cloud would form on top of it?
I won't drive, so my mobility is highly restricted. I am considering Palm Cove where sunrise is not obscured. Would that be a better choice than the downtown? If I want to go inland, is Mareeba the only choice with public transport?
Thank you!
You can walk to the esplanade.
There is no REAL public transport between Cairns and Mareeba, except taxi and a daily bus service.
There is a train which goes to Kuranda, which will be stopping on the mountain for the Total eclipse.
There is hot air balloons in Mareeba at max height of 6500ft, they pick up passengers from Cairns.
Synoptic Situation: A high over the central Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine except for the a shower or two about the coast in the morning. Light to moderate E to SE winds with afternoon seabreezes about the coast.
Cairns Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny.
Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Patchy low cloud offshore and a little over the ranges. Some low cloud over central Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Some low cloud along the coast and the apparently common little indication of cloud around Mt Carbine (see note from yesterday). Extensive area of high cloud over the eastern third of eclipse path centred over Cairns.
EU: 20-50% low cloud along the coast. Clear skies 60km inland.
Again the models got the bigger picture broadly correct, but the details get sketchy. For instance, the patch of low cloud that BoM model predicted in central Cape York north of eclipse track was not present. US model again forecast a large area of high cloud that was not present.
Observed Weather Cairns: A few low clouds close to the eastern horizon and back towards the ranges but a good clear view of the sun at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Mostly clear view of the eclipse along Cairns end of the coastal strip, but cloudy in Port Douglas. Scattered low clouds over the ranges (but clear enough in Mt Carbine at eclipse time). Generally clear skies 60km inland. Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day) Coast: ~50%
60km Inland: ~90%
You can walk to the esplanade.
There is no REAL public transport between Cairns and Mareeba, except taxi and a daily bus service.
There is a train which goes to Kuranda, which will be stopping on the mountain for the Total eclipse.
There is hot air balloons in Mareeba at max height of 6500ft, they pick up passengers from Cairns.
based on today's time lapse:
Mareeba: 95% clear due to late cloud after 730am
Cairns: cloud for start of eclipse, but clears for total
Mt Carbine: clear but with little cloud at start
In the chart, blue means clear, white means overcast
Yes.. this is the same US GFS model that Skippy Sky also presents data from. Use whichever interface you prefer, but the forecast data should be the same (also on just about every other weather website online as well.. they all use US GFS model).
based on today's time lapse:
Mareeba: high, very light cloud at start. Total clear. mid clouds at 730am
Cairns: cloudy, then clears at 7am
Mt Carbine: same as Mareeba, but remains clear through to 8am
Yes.. this is the same US GFS model that Skippy Sky also presents data from. Use whichever interface you prefer, but the forecast data should be the same (also on just about every other weather website online as well.. they all use US GFS model).
Phil - correct, however the individual websites do all interpret the GFS model slightly differently. I'm not sure of the details (do some use a finer/courser lat/long grid? Do some provide clever additional meteorological interpretation?). I suspect at least some of the variation may be for visualisation purposes (e.g. 7timer tries to make things look realistically like clouds).
Having never played with the 7timer one, I quite like the fact you can see (at a glance), how the last 4 model runs predict any specific time. i.e., it's interesting to see if the latest model run is much different from the one 18 hours ago.
Phil - correct, however the individual websites do all interpret the GFS model slightly differently. I'm not sure of the details (do some use a finer/courser lat/long grid? Do some provide clever additional meteorological interpretation?). I suspect at least some of the variation may be for visualisation purposes (e.g. 7timer tries to make things look realistically like clouds).
Having never played with the 7timer one, I quite like the fact you can see (at a glance), how the last 4 model runs predict any specific time. i.e., it's interesting to see if the latest model run is much different from the one 18 hours ago.
I'm involved in the development of 7timer. The charts are based on raw GFS data without further interpretation.
Synoptic Situation: A high over the eastern Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Appears to indicate clear skies offshore and inland (with the caveat that it's hard on these synthetic IR images to be sure what's happening)
Skippy Sky: Small amount of low cloud over Mt Carbine (as per usual) and just offshore. High cloud over most of Cape York north of eclipse track, extending a little over track as well.
EU: 10-30% low cloud indicated for Cairns, 30-70% in Port Douglas. 0-50% low cloud shown for Mt Gibson and Mt Carbine, clear at Mt Mulligan. All locations improving from 5am to 8am.Similar forecasts and similar result to the last few days. US Model again seeing high cloud where there is none.
Observed Weather Cairns: A little low cloud around but clear at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Some low cloud over the ranges, and a little offshore Port Douglas. Clear skies inland.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day) Coast: ~70-80%
60km Inland: ~95%
Synoptic Situation: A weak ridge lies along the tropical east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Fine and sunny. Light to moderate SE to NE winds. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Clear skies along the coast and inland. Some low cloud inland north of eclipse track but looks to be only after eclipse time.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies with just a little high cloud around (north and south of coastal eclipse area).
EU: Crystal clear skies along the coast and inland.
Observed Weather Cairns: Good view of the sun in slightly hazy skies.
Elsewhere: A band of low cloud offshore and slightly hazy skies due to some thin high cloud but most locations between Cairns and Port Douglas had a clear view at eclipse time. Just a couple of isolated patches of cloud over the ranges and clear skies 60km inland.
The band of low cloud offshore was not clearly indicated by the models, but the BoM model arguably did pick up an area of scattered cloud inland north of the eclipse track. Thin/hazy high cloud visible in the webcams hard to discern on the satellite image so presumably not very extensive.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~70-80%
60km Inland: ~95%
Synoptic Situation: A high pressure system lies just east of Victoria and is expected to strengthen as it drifts further east into the Tasman Sea over the next couple of days, extending a firm ridge along much of the east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Mainly fine, partly cloudy, isolated showers developing during the afternoon and evening south of about Cairns and southern Tablelands.. Light to moderate SE to NE winds. Cloud Forecasts BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, clear skies inland.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore. High cloud across southern track area and offshore well east of Cairns.
EU: 30-40% low cloud for Cairns, 50-60% for Port Douglas. Both clear by middle of the day. Pretty clear skies inland, but low clouds still shown at Mt Carbine (30%).
Observed Weather Thin line of low cloud lying along the coast and scattered clouds over the ranges. Clear inland.
Skies improving through the morning at Cairns with the sun just into clear skies at eclipse time. Would have needed similar luck elsewhere along coast. Clear view at eclipse time from Mt Carbine and Mareeba.
I give all the models a nod again for the broad picture with respect to low cloud offshore and over the ranges. US model closer to the mark on the high cloud today as there was high cloud to the east of Cairns (clearer over land eclipse track at eclipse time than the model suggested though).
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50%
60km Inland: ~95%
The various models are all in broad agreement about a large and significant low pressure trough moving through central Australia this week, affecting northern Queensland next weekend to some extent.
Its affect as far north as the eclipse region does not look too strong at the moment. Even so, it's going to make for a nervous few days as we all arrive in FNQ! Better that it arrives on the weekend though than middle of next week, but we'll need some luck to move all the associated moisture away and return to clearer skies by eclipse day. Fingers crossed!
Here are my thoughts after watching the weather in Cairns for a couple of weeks..
Similar to my experience with them in Victoria, I would rate the BoM and EU models as more useful/accurate than the US model, although you can usually interpret the same patterns in the US model, just with lower resolution. It is reassuring when they all agree, but as Jay Anderson and other meteorologists have said, the models tend to be more like each other than the real weather.
The BoM model is just a little bit hard to use at the moment as the only representation we have is a 'synthetic' infrared forecast image which makes picking out low cloud on night time and early morning images tricky. The EU model via yr.no is great as it gives you the breakdown in percentage for low/mid/high cloud, but unfortunately you can only get spot forecasts for specific locations.. there are no free websites that show a map of the cloud forecasts from this EU model.
Before I started this thread two weeks ago, on the basis of what I had read and heard till then, my plan was to setup where I am staying with family and friends at Newell Beach (just north of Port Douglas) and take whatever weather I got on the day. I understood that my odds there were as good there as anywhere else.
However, after watching the patterns these last two weeks, I now expect to drive out along the Mulligan Highway the evening before the eclipse, stay beside the car through the night, and photograph the eclipse from 60km inland, at the end of that long straight stretch of road just before the Mulligan Highway turns to the north.
There have been a few days where the models have predicted clear conditions along the coast, and generally been correct, so with a forecast like that I might stay on the beach (but ready to jump if the skies don't still look clear at ~2am). Otherwise, under the typical forecast pattern of some low clouds along the coast and ranges, and since photography is a lot less flexible than visually observing an eclipse, I expect to head inland as the chances have been better there most days. It's just a pity there are so few good roads and places to setup as 60km is not as far inland as I would like to be.. it's still a marginal proposition.
So for most people, the coast is probably still the right option and for visual observers even the ability to move a few hundred metres up or down along the beach might be enough to improve your chances and miss a poorly placed low cloud.
The inland option means doing a scouting trip in the days beforehand, and not sleeping much if at all the night before to find a space where you can pull off the road in plenty of time before sunrise.
So I'm certainly not advising people on the coast to change their plans. However, for people staying in Mt Carbine and other locations close to the ranges, I think you do need a good Plan B. The ranges are typically cloudier than the coast or inland, and with the sun so low in the sky you would often have lost it in the clouds over these last two weeks. Some days are ok, and logistically you are in good spot able to quickly move east or west, but I would have a good plan of where you are headed if you wake up to cloudy skies early on eclipse morning (and leaving yourself plenty of time to make the move).
without the hassle. 
