... The asteroid .. known as 2007 WD5 .. was discovered in late November and is similar in size to the Tunguska object that hit remote central Siberia in 1908 .. unleashing energy equivalent to a 15-megaton nuclear bomb that wiped out 60 million trees.
I wonder how many trees will this one wipe out?
Murphies law says it hits one of the rovers...the one that is working the best!
If it hits could the resulting dust cloud cause a green house effect, melt the ice and make it nice for life? what are the odds on that?
A 1 in 75 is like no chance at all as Eric rightly put it the odds should be looked at from the other end to realise how slim those odds are... still I would like those odds if I purchased a lotto ticket.
alex
A 1 in 75 is like no chance at all as Eric rightly put it the odds should be looked at from the other end to realise how slim those odds are... still I would like those odds if I purchased a lotto ticket.
alex
Sorry I disagree. A 1 in 75 is not like no chance at all, it is still a 1 in 75
chance period, however slim those odds are. No chance at all is simply that,
No Chance At All and nowhere near a 1 in 75 chance
What I initially meant was, a 1 in 75 chance of hitting Mars is pretty good
odds and a slim chance of an impact, which would be fantastic to see.
Either way an impact or no impact I'll be keeping my ears open for any
news.
Quick - down to Ladbrokes - what odds it'll hit one of the rovers?
"The asteroid's course has now taken it behind Earth's moon, he said, so it will be almost two weeks before observers get another chance to plot its course more accurately."
This confused me, but it must be suggesting that asteroid is tracking same path and speed as the Moon, from our earthbound perspective. I find it hard to believe given how fast the Moon moves relative to the stars??
It is quite possible, depending on it's orientation from our perspective and
it's orbit. I suppose the odds of it happening is like the odds of it hitting Mars
Thats 1.33% which is about the same as flipping 6 heads in a row.
I think those odds are well worth a good look. Also kinda scary when you think about it
Still better odds than me getting an Argo Navis for Chtistmas
I uploaded an image for SN with the latest ephemeris for 2007 WD5. There
is a text file with all the required info if you want to add it to SN.
Currently 2007 WD5 is about 6 degree east and slightly south of the moon.
And currently looking at a flyby at around 200,000kms from Mars, with a
2.4% chance of hitting Mars this percentage is increasing.
I still don't get the "can't refine the orbit because it's behind the moon" statement. Clearly it's not behind the moon, and I fail to see how it can stay behind the moon anyway. It's orbiting the sun, the moon is orbiting the Earth, the Moon could occult the asteroid, but only fleetingly. The SN screen shot show this, if that's the position of the Moon, Mars and the asteroid, then tomorrow the moon won't be in shot.
The asteroid being at mag 24.3 makes it a fairly faint object, with the moon
heading to Fullmoon on the 24th that maybe causing a few problem for
ground based instruments trying to track it, not sure where the info came
from on that one. Yes as you can see it isn't sitting behind the moon.
Near Earth Orbiting Objects came in many varried orbit's. Most are not
discovered until they have gone past us, which is a bit of a worry. But
if the circumstances were right, I see no reason why one couldn't be hidden
for a time behind the moon, but for 2 weeks I'm not too sure about that.
Currently 2007 WD5 is about 6 degree east and slightly south of the moon.
And currently looking at a flyby at around 200,000kms from Mars, with a
2.4% chance of hitting Mars this percentage is increasing.
regards,CS
i can only say bring it on, it would put astronomy back in the spotlight again in the eyes of governments etc
I made a little movie of 2007 WD5 orbit using the latest ephemeris. Starting
from the 01/09/07 to 20/02/08. It's 1.3mg and you'll need Quicktime to
view it. It was pretty much chasing our @$$ there for a month or so.
The asteroid being at mag 24.3 makes it a fairly faint object, with the moon
heading to Fullmoon on the 24th that maybe causing a few problem for
ground based instruments trying to track it, not sure where the info came
from on that one. Yes as you can see it isn't sitting behind the moon.
Near Earth Orbiting Objects came in many varried orbit's. Most are not
discovered until they have gone past us, which is a bit of a worry. But
if the circumstances were right, I see no reason why one couldn't be hidden
for a time behind the moon, but for 2 weeks I'm not too sure about that.
just my thoughts, but I could be wrong.
regards,CS
Hi CS,
Yes, perhaps it's just the translation from astronomer speak to media speak. Hidden in the glare of the moon could translate to hidden by the moon by the time it reaches a science reporters fingertips. Still, Hubble doesn't have that limitation, so why not use it.
What's the bet that this thing will take out at least one orbiting spacecraft, and with it all the images from Mars, or it'll miss completely.
If it hits Mars it might get the polaticians thinking:Hey thats a bit to close to home, lets put some more money into finding these things and to put some thought what to do about ny ones possibly heading our way
I hope it happens as it will make possibly for some good pics from the the Rovers and Hubble
Near Earth Orbiting Objects came in many varried orbit's. Most are not
discovered until they have gone past us, which is a bit of a worry.
regards,CS
I guess if someone throws a ball toward you, your brain can calculate its path and you can move to catch it. If someone throws something directly AT your face, there is not the same amount of relative motion, it just gets bigger and it is too late by the time you duck
, but it ain't rocket science to figure out what I
