With about three weeks to go, I figure it's time to start monitoring the daily weather in the Cairns region to support optimal decision making for the eclipse itself. The build-up to the wet season will be further progressed in three weeks time, but current weather patterns are already well worth watching. My primary interest though is comparing the cloud models over the next few weeks to the actual weather, so that we have a better idea how much faith to place in them on the evening of 13th November!
I'll try to make this same report for as many days as I can, but perhaps others can fill in when I miss out. Observations from anybody in the area especially welcome, otherwise I am relying on the satellite and radar images and the Cairns webcam.
Friday 19th October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. High pressure centred well east of NSW with ridge up to FNQ.
BoM Forecast: Scattered light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning and evening. Moderate SE winds.
Observed Weather: Overcast (low cloud), showers.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Quite good match on extent of low cloud.
Skippy Sky: Shows lots of high cloud over FNQ that is not present. Shows some low cloud but poor match on its extent.
EU: Quite good match for Port Douglas/Mt Carbine etc.
Observations from anybody in the area especially welcome, otherwise I am relying on the satellite and radar images and the Cairns webcam.
Hi Phil,
Thanks for starting the reports. I have been independently watching.
Lucky today is not the 14th of Nov.
You might like to add to your portfolio of resources the wonderful set of
wide-angle, sky pointing web cams sited on Gorge Creek Orchards farm
10km west of Mareeba and belonging to IIS member "Cyclone".
Cyclone also monitors other weather parameters and even has a broadcast
every 15 minutes on UHF for the benefit of those within a 30km radius of
the Mareeba area.
Thanks for starting the reports. I have been independently watching.
Lucky today is not the 14th of Nov.
You might like to add to your portfolio of resources the wonderful set of
wide-angle, sky pointing web cams sited on Gorge Creek Orchards farm
10km west of Mareeba and belonging to IIS member "Cyclone".
Cyclone also monitors other weather parameters and even has a broadcast
every 15 minutes on UHF for the benefit of those within a 30km radius of
the Mareeba area.
thanks houghy/gary and especially cyclone.. that's a nice set of webcams!
Saturday 20th October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. Broad high pressure ridge over FNQ,
Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning. Mostly moderate SE winds.
Observed Weather: Extensive patchy cloud offshore but Cairns and most of the way to Port Douglas in a gap just big enough to catch the eclipse. Not the kind of satellite image you'd like to see on eclipse morning though. Small patches of cloud around the ranges may have impeded view for some even 60km inland.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: As this is a 'synthetic' infrared image, low cloud is a little hard to discern in early morning hours. After stretching the image, low cloud is indicated around the coast but hard to tell the extent.
Skippy Sky: Extensive low cloud beginning immediately offshore. High cloud inland around northern side of eclipse track (which was again not actually present).
EU: 50% low cloud at coast, dropping to 20% well inland.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~70%
60km Inland: ~70%
Funny thing here is the locals say the storm season starts when the Jacaranda's loose their flowers.
Still in full bloom here, so fingers crossed they hold out for another 24 days.
starting tomorrow i will be adding timelapse AVI's (1 hour before sunrise to 8am) with Mareeba tomorrow, Cairns from Monday and hopefully Mt Carbine from Wednesday. go to my solar eclipse webpage
Sunday 21st October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. Broad high pressure ridge over FNQ.
Forecast: Isolated light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly north of Cairns. Moderate SE'ly winds, fresh and gusty during the day north of Cairns.
Observed Weather: Extensive patchy cloud offshore, extending around 30km inland in northern area of eclipse track. Clear inland of Cairns.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Patchy low cloud offshore, some pushing a little inland but more so north of eclipse area.
Skippy Sky: Areas of low cloud SE and south of Cairns and one small area north of Port Douglas. Otherwise clear.
EU: Clear in Cairns, 70% low cloud Port Douglas. 5% (Mt Gibson) to 30% (Mt Carbine) low cloud inland.
On this occasion, an average of the three cloud models (all broadly similar) would have been a pretty reasonable indication of weather on the day.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30-40%
60km Inland: ~80% (a lot less closer to the ranges)
starting tomorrow i will be adding timelapse AVI's (1 hour before sunrise to 8am) with Mareeba tomorrow, Cairns from Monday and hopefully Mt Carbine from Wednesday. go to my solar eclipse webpage
I'm having trouble playing the Mareeba one at the minute.. i think you can afford to decrease the resolution a bit for a weather cam.. might make things easier?
I'm having trouble playing the Mareeba one at the minute.. i think you can afford to decrease the resolution a bit for a weather cam.. might make things easier?
Monday 22nd October
Synoptic Situation: Broad area of high pressure over SEQ. Isobars well spread out with ESE airflow over FNQ.
Forecast: Isolated morning showers about the coast and ranges, mainly north of Cairns. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh and gusty about the coast north of Cairns during the day.
Observed Weather: Extensive and quite solid low cloud offshore, pushing 30km+ inland. A little high cloud offshore as well.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies on the coast and inland. High cloud a little offshore moving down from the north late morning well after eclipse.
Skippy Sky: Patchy low cloud just off the coast in eclipse area. Extensive high cloud 100km offshore from before sunrise.
EU: Some low cloud around Cairns (15%) and Port Douglas (40%). Low cloud at Mt Carbine clearing to ~50-60% by eclipse time and clear skies by midday. Similar but slightly better further inland at Mt Gibson (next nearest town where forecast available).
BoM and EU models greatly underestimated the amount of low cloud that appeared along the coast this morning., US model also but to a lesser extent. US Model again greatly overstated amount of high cloud generally but BoM model perhaps slightly underestimated.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <10%
60km Inland: ~40% (could be less but hard to discern cloud extent on satellite image)
Cyclone - if you could give a one sentence summary of what the webcams show for each location each day that would be a big help for me (among other things i can't access your site from work.. it's filtered out under the classification of 'tobacco').
Been watching for a couple of weeks and the monsoon is yet to show itself. By the 14th though this will certainly not be the case. I am banking on cloud and will be pleasantly surprised is it turns out that we have clear conditions.
Last two totals I have had a good feeling that we would see the eclipses. At this stage I don't have a good or bad feeling one way or the other. I know that is a bit airy fairy but it is as reliable as any long range forecast for Cairns longer than two days.
It will be nice to be in the shadow of the moon once again though.
This is great information. How far prior to the observed current day are your forecasts taken from?
Thanks Geoff. I'm looking at the forecasts in the late afternoon/evening for the following day, which is also what I expect to do in Port Douglas on the 13th before deciding whether to stay at our beach house or venture 60km inland (pity there are very limited options for going any further than that). The BoM cloud forecast which is my primary source for near-term forecasts is updated twice a day, around 4/5 AM and PM.
The even later option is to check the satellite image and the skies around 2am but that's about as late as I could leave it..
Tuesday 23rd October Synoptic Situation: A weakening ridge lies along the tropical east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Mainly fine and mostly sunny. Only isolated showers developing during the late evening about the coast and ranges. Light to moderate S to SE winds, becoming fresh about the coast during the afternoon.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Heavy high cloud over all of far-north Queensland.
Skippy Sky: Extensive high cloud, with mid-level cloud north of eclipse track.
EU: Overcast with high cloud along coast and inland sites. Only very small amount of low cloud.
Observed Weather Cairns: Few low clouds, Overcast high cloud and similar for all of the eclipse area.
All the models did well today anticipating the movement of a large system of high cloud coming down from the North. Again, not the kind of weather we want for eclipse day!
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: <5% (but with a hazy view of the sun through high cloud)
60km Inland: <5% (but with a hazy view of the sun through high cloud)
