Inflation

[FlashDrive (Poppy)]

Please excuse my ignorance on this .... but what is causing all this disruption of supply.

Was it the COVID situation worldwide....or is it just China and their silly tactics regarding boycotts of countries who would normally buy their goods.

Col..

[Kuz]

Col , I believe there is hardly any chinese steel currently in Australia at the moment( which has always helped with lack of Australian supply) due to this the Australia steel mills, are struggling to keep up with demand by themselves.

[gary]

Originally Posted by FlashDrive

Please excuse my ignorance on this .... but what is causing all this disruption of supply.

Was it the COVID situation worldwide....or is it just China and their silly tactics regarding boycotts of countries who would normally buy their goods.

Col..

Purely the COVID crises.

Supply chain disruptions are significant and widespread.

And it is effecting everything from electronic components, to refrigeration
coolant, to lumber, to steel, to rubber, to glass, to chemicals,
to available truck drivers and the price of sea freight and so on and
so forth.

Spot rates on shipping 40-foot containers has risen as much as ten-fold
in recent months.

Expect to pay quadruple the price for refrigeration coolant.

Lead times on many semiconductors is now out to 30 weeks and some
into 2023. It's the worse I have ever seen it. Over the past two years,
people such as car makers had cancelled orders for things like steel
and semiconductors in anticipation of weak demand.

Wine makers report having trouble buying bottles.

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by gary

Wine makers report having trouble buying bottles.

When I was little every glass container had something called a "consigne" meaning you had to bring it back to the place you bought it from and they paid you back a portion of the price you paid. Maybe we go back to that system progressively and do our own recycling again.

[Peter Ward]

Hearing about the Urea shortage...caused by China deciding to ban exports of the stuff to Australia (used to make Adblue and similar diesel engine anti-emission additives) it looks like long distance trucking may grind to a halt in the New Year.

The cost of all road freight may well go ballistic as a result.

Funny....we used to have these things called "Trains" that ran on steel rails to many regional towns....

P.S.
As an aside, Strategically, Australia is in a mess. Can't produce mRNA vaccines, Just two steel mills, two oil refineries and four bombs away from closing *all* of the arterial roads of its largest city.

[gary]

Originally Posted by Peter Ward

Hearing about the Urea shortage...caused by China deciding to ban exports of the stuff to Australia (used to make Adblue and similar diesel engine anti-emission additives) it looks like long distance trucking may grind to a halt in the New Year.

Not specifically suspend its exports to Australia, China has announced
it has suspended its export of fertiliser products to the world until June 2022
"to ensure domestic availability amid food security concerns".

China accounts for about one-10th of the world supply of urea and one-third
of another important farm input of diammonium phosphate.

Russia has also curbed fertiliser exports for six months.

This is on the back of near record high fertiliser costs where prices have
been driven by surging energy costs and supply curtailments.

See https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata...urity-concerns

See https://www.theguardian.com/australi...s-supply-chain

The spin in Australia that the economy is in great shape seems blinkered
to the realities of how badly global supply chains have been disrupted,
the longer than expected times it will take them to get back to "normal"
and the rising price of just about everything against near zero
wage growth.

More honest advice may well be "hope for the best, expect the worst".

[gary]

A 11 Nov 2022 article at the World Economic Forum web site that
describes how the COVID-19 crises revealed that modern supply chains
are a house of cards, collapsing the moment they come under any kind of
sustained pressure.

Originally Posted by Christian Lanng, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman and Co-Founder, Tradeshift

The crunch on container capacity could last until Q4 2022, according to maritime research firm Drewry. Shortages of key components, including semiconductors, could take even longer to resolve. Is the answer to carry on pushing orders through in the hope that these problems resolve themselves? Two years into the pandemic, there are strong signs global businesses are starting to realize that supply chains actually need root-and-branch reform.

Originally Posted by Christian Lanng, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman and Co-Founder, Tradeshift

Butterfly effect
It is tempting to blame current supply chain issues on a system that is simply rebooting, meaning these problems will be painful but temporary. Such a narrow view of current challenges ignores deep structural issues in supply chains, however. These issues will cause regular breakdowns in the future if left unchecked.

Lean manufacturing processes have reduced competition to a point where factory closures in one Asian country can unleash global chaos. The antiquated systems that govern relationships across supply chains have led to a butterfly effect, where a lack of agility causes any crisis to spiral into catastrophe. Low connectivity has left businesses blind to potential issues and incapable of reacting in time to avoid a crisis rippling through the value chain.

Creating a global trading system capable of withstanding future shocks will require a coordinated effort from both governments and the private sector. This must involve a mixture of trade reform and investment in industries that have been hollowed out by fragile supply chain models. Such changes will take time and will require significant capital expenditure - but they will also require vision.

Article here :- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/...omic-recovery/

[Peter Ward]

Originally Posted by gary

........

More honest advice may well be "hope for the best, expect the worse".

Forgot who first said this: "I expected the worst but it was worse than I expected...."

[JA]

Originally Posted by Peter Ward

Forgot who first said this: "I expected the worst but it was worse than I expected...."

Whoever it was obviously had low expectations .....

Best
JA

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by gary

it has suspended its export of fertiliser products to the world until June 2022
"to ensure domestic availability amid food security concerns".

Isn't the chemistry to make fertilizers closely related to the chemistry to make explosives compounds?

[Peter Ward]

Originally Posted by multiweb

Isn't the chemistry to make fertilizers closely related to the chemistry to make explosives compounds?

Indeed. Beirut had a large stockpile of fertiliser until August 2020.

That said, and clearly off-topic, not sure what they put in warheads these days...might be nitrate based, but with much a higher energy density.

Any ex-military types know what the current flavour of the month is? C4? Semtex?

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by gary

A 11 Nov 2022 article at the World Economic Forum web site that
describes how the COVID-19 crises revealed that modern supply chains
are a house of cards, collapsing the moment they come under any kind of
sustained pressure.






Article here :- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/...omic-recovery/

Reading this article one gets the feeling that going to the cheapest producer as a common denominator weighted more in the balance of risks than the common sense approach of "not putting your eggs in the same basket". Then what hope was there in the first place to put resilience ahead of profit.

[FlashDrive (Poppy)]

I've just got back from the future .... everything is still on ' back order ' .

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by FlashDrive

I've just got back from the future .... everything is still on ' back order ' .

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

Supply Chain issues are a problem no doubt and as noted COVID is the factor. As every business has optimized for “Just In Time”, everyone counts on the continuing flow of material…as long as the ins match the outs it works fine.

That link got broken and will take some time to recover. Add in a little political hubris and an aging infrastructure and you get a mess.

[TrevorW]

Well my GSO CF 10" TRUSS NEWT has gone up $1000 since I purchased it a year ago, anyone want to buy it

[gary]

In some instances, the demands to keep supply chains operating during
the pandemic took a toll on human lives. This 7 December 2021 Bloomberg
article brings a human face to it in reporting on individuals who tragically
died working at the STMicroelectronics NV’s facility in Malaysia.

Originally Posted by Yoolim Lee/Yantoultra Ngui Bloomberg

Hani Bin Sha’ari spent more than two decades rising through the ranks at STMicroelectronics NV’s facility in Malaysia. He prided himself on working hard to provide for his wife and four children. So when the chip plant remained open through a spike in Covid-19 infections this year, he kept doing his job.

...

Hani was one of at least 20 workers at STMicro’s facility in the Malaysian district of Muar who died from Covid-19 after the delta variant raged through the country this year. The company kept its chip assembly and testing plant running while the virus was killing workers, as the company raced to meet surging demand from automakers and other customers. Authorities in Malaysia, like in many other countries, were concerned about keeping their economy on track during the pandemic and they granted chipmakers exemptions while much of the country locked down.

While Covid-19 killed millions of people around the globe, deaths at the Muar facility were substantially higher than averages in the rest of the country and the world. One in 1,100 people in Malaysia died from the virus since the start of the pandemic, according to the country’s Ministry of Health, while it was at least one in 210 at the plant, according to Bloomberg News reporting. STMicro declined to comment on the specific number of workers who died at the Muar location.

Originally Posted by Yoolim Lee/Yantoultra Ngui Bloomberg

The tragedy in Muar shows the little-understood human cost of keeping supply chains running in a pandemic. While politicians in Washington and Paris urge suppliers to step up production of semiconductors and government officials in countries like Malaysia give special exemptions to powerful corporations, employees like Hani put their lives at risk.

Originally Posted by Yoolim Lee/Yantoultra Ngui Bloomberg

STMicro, run by Chief Executive Officer Jean-Marc Chery, faced extra pressures this year from politicians around the world who grew alarmed that shortages were shutting down auto plants and other factories. And of course, staying open benefits the company financially. The day Hani died, STMicro reported robust financial results that sent its stock to a record high.

Story here :-
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...malaysian-town

[ausastronomer (John Bambury)]

I work for a large integrated Agribusiness. In December 2018 we harvested 3,000 tonne of Canola which we sold for ~$180 / tonne. Over the next month we will harvest 5,000 tonne of Canola. 1,000 tonne of that was forward sold @ $800 / tonne. The rest will realise ~$1,000 / tonne. That's inflation !!

Cheers
John B

[wavelandscott (Scott)]

Originally Posted by ausastronomer

I work for a large integrated Agribusiness. In December 2018 we harvested 3,000 tonne of Canola which we sold for ~$180 / tonne. Over the next month we will harvest 5,000 tonne of Canola. 1,000 tonne of that was forward sold @ $800 / tonne. The rest will realise ~$1,000 / tonne. That's inflation !!

Cheers
John B

Or good fortune depending on which side of the supply chain you participate in…

[Peter Ward]

Originally Posted by TrevorW

Well my GSO CF 10" TRUSS NEWT has gone up $1000 since I purchased it a year ago, anyone want to buy it

While I'm guessing you are being glib, if the used car market is an indicator, used Astro gear may well see a price increase.

e.g. Waiting times on Takahashi have blown out to a year

Vertical markets can be fickle...I suspect if I put my Alluna RC16 up on IIS for $50k
(well below current replacement cost) all I'd hear would be crickets.....