Does anyone check the forecast anymore?

[Atmos (Colin)]

For the last few days I’ve been checking the forecast for Friday/Saturday night and getting the impression that Friday night is the better in Melbourne. Set up and all ready to go and the skies were quite mushy all night.

11am this morning I’m checking the forecast for tonight, cloud increasing from midnight, wind increasing from 10pm and I’m getting strong wind warnings consistently throughout the day. Wind increasing throughout Saturday to 30km over night and already hitting 20km at near midday. Decide to packup and have a quiet evening.

Head out to start the BBQ, wind at died down from 6-7pm, it’s now nearly 11pm and no wind to speak of. Crystal clear night with very low jet stream and it’s dead still, unlike last night which was forecasted to have very little wind but it had a fair breeze.

Considering on Thursday night in Melbourne we had strong winds in a short burst I wasn’t willing to leave anything setup tonight in case it was hectic quickly, no one wants to see their setup smashed on the brick garden edging.

/End Rant

[mswhin63 (Malcolm)]

I personally use Skippysky to give me more immediate cloud cover forecasts. Worked well for me. Fortunately, I don't have wind issue as I am well protected. I still have small reservations for Skippysky but the last few times it has been quite reliable. The longer-range forecasting should be taken with care though.
It also has wind forecasting as well.

[xa-coupe (Jeff)]

I agree, but I'm happy with any night with no cloud .. there's so few at this time of year.

[Saturnine (Jeff)]

I'm another that studiously peruses the forecasts from BOM, CFN & Skippy Sky to try and get an idea of what to expect for the nights observing. Local topology can have an effect that the generalised forecasts can't predict. Taking tonight as an example, has been light breezes and mild temperatures all day and the forecast was for clear skies, which we have but the Jetstream was also supposed to be fairly calm along with the low level winds. Instead of steady seeing that I was looking forward to as I wanted to catch the Europa transit on Jupiter, the seeing was terrible. Probably because the light breeze was coming down from the NW, from the centre of the continent, any time the winds come from that direction, no matter how light, the seeing is always compromised.

[RyanJones]

For me in the west of Melbourne the forcast was pretty accurate. I set up early in the night and there was probably medium winds. My target rose above next doors fence at about 10 by which time the wind had grown. I’ve pushed through and imaged anyway because I could setup in a corner that gave me some protection from the wind. I’ve just woken up now at 2:30 and the wind is strong and the predicted high level cloud has set in. Despite it being spot on this time, I’d have to say that’s the exception and not the rule. I’ve had many a bad night predicted that I didn’t setup and it turned out to be clear and many when I’ve gone through my whole setup routine, stared imaging only to get unpredicted wall to wall clouds half an hour in. Sadly it seems to be the nature of the beast in this hobby.

[leon]

I have noticed in the past that their forecasts are always a day late, and this happens all the time.

Leon

[LewisM]

Never trusted a met forecast, ever - and that included when my life LITERALLY depended on it (aviation).

Go outside, look up. Make your own decisions. Costs nothing either. Was planning to go observing with someone once, but he decided he'd trust a certain online site that expounded gloom and doom. I imaged all by myself, and it was actually the BEST night I have ever had. Not a scintillation to be seen.