How does the world look after 50 years (2070) ?

[geolindon (Lindon)]

i think the pessimistic view, is at least in part, self contradicting;

The diabolical economics is our best population control. Economically successful countries/families do not have enough children to maintain the population numbers, Australia has a declining population without net immigration despite bonus $$ for having a baby. Logan, please get a good high tax paying job so i and a coupla others can have a good pension for our many twilight years .

The current fracturing of unity eg Brexit & trade tiffs is a 'correction' and progress towards globalisation/unification/less borders will return to the long term trend. ever increasing information sharing guarantees it. Reducing the likely hood of KABOOM!

every day i read of advancements in our knowledge and understanding of our cosmos at every level. each advance has good and evil but arguably we have thus far managed for more good than evil.

yes, we sure do need to consume less wastefully but that attitude is trending in the right direction. combined with eg plastic reduced to its constituent elements by micro/nano fauna, and we will get back on track.

regards, L

[skysurfer]

Originally Posted by casstony

I sympathise with Logan and I think the younger generations should be very angry at the current caretakers of the planet. Who is responsible though?

My current view is that human populations are fairly dumb and easily manipulated by power hungry men. So who should we blame, the dumb voters or the psychopaths (CEO's and politicians) who control us?

Indeed, the younger generation is provided a messy world. I think both the voters and the politicians (particularly that lunatic in the White House) and CEOs are responsible.

As long as we consume way too much energy and resources the world cannot sustain even the current number of 8 billion people.

[clive milne]

Originally Posted by skysurfer

Indeed, the younger generation is provided a messy world. I think both the voters and the politicians (particularly that lunatic in the White House) and CEOs are responsible.

As long as we consume way too much energy and resources the world cannot sustain even the current number of 8 billion people.

(Emphasis added)

Trump is a puppet, he was bought and paid for back in 1987... to the tune of one and a half billion if memory serves me correctly.
The hustings are little more than theatre,
pablum for the prol's if you will.

For a little trip down the rabbit hole, do a search on:
Resorts international, Mary Carter Paint company, CIA, Mossad, Trump, Rothschild.
.... There be dragons...

[xelasnave]

I recall a sales motivation training type tape where the narrator preached the approach of positive thinking on a negative assumption.
So lets assume the worst will happen what will we have to do to manage.
I see going underground ..huge expansive caves I guess with parks and buildings ad vegetables hrowing under lights...on the ground about the land is covered with solar panels ad wind turbines...
Life will be different..no roads but underhround river systems to link regions...other cave cities...akr coditioned caves ...industries grow to harvest the old world that remains on the surface and you need space suits to work on the surface of the planet...
Alex

[skysurfer]

Originally Posted by xelasnave

I recall a sales motivation training type tape where the narrator preached the approach of positive thinking on a negative assumption.
So lets assume the worst will happen what will we have to do to manage.
I see going underground ..huge expansive caves I guess with parks and buildings ad vegetables hrowing under lights...on the ground about the land is covered with solar panels ad wind turbines...
Life will be different..no roads but underhround river systems to link regions...other cave cities...akr coditioned caves ...industries grow to harvest the old world that remains on the surface and you need space suits to work on the surface of the planet...
Alex

Then it is gone with astronomy and nature.
I'd rather stay in large satellites or spaceships orbiting Earth (or another planet) than never seeing daylight.

[KenGee (Kenith Gee)]

mmm I think the reality will not much different than today. Temps might be 1 deg more on average and coming down with new mitigation projects working well.
China would have become a democratic country. more and more women would have got an education so fewer kids, better living standards, world popular declining by naturally.

Not sure why the pessimism maybe listening too many green armageddonist

[SimmoW (SIMON)]

Im pretty optimistic, big advances in zero emission transport.

But food, water, resources? As with all of human history, a war or 3 might be involved.

But our trees and creek wont care, theyll keep growing, silently watching things go by.

[xelasnave]

Originally Posted by skysurfer

Then it is gone with astronomy and nature.
I'd rather stay in large satellites or spaceships orbiting Earth (or another planet) than never seeing daylight.

The caves will have higly insulated sky lights
...and horizontal outlooks will have giant highly insulated observation windows.
It will be really nice just different.
Alex

[AndrewJ]

big advances in zero emission transport

No such thing. Maybe relocated emissions
Andrew

[el_draco (Rom)]

Originally Posted by KenGee

mmm I think the reality will not much different than today. Temps might be 1 deg more on average and coming down with new mitigation projects working well.
China would have become a democratic country. more and more women would have got an education so fewer kids, better living standards, world popular declining by naturally.

Not sure why the pessimism maybe listening too many green armageddonist

Nothing like "head in the sand" ideology and boring platitudes... we have already passed two degrees...

[casstony]

Originally Posted by KenGee

Not sure why the pessimism maybe listening too many green armageddonist

I'm optimistic on a daily basis (Sun's shining today, kids are happy, etc) but history rhymes and it suggests we're headed for desperate economic times and major conflict. Our scientists also tell us that we're facing serious environmental problems of our own making, so it seems wise to give more than a passing thought to the future...………..which brings me back to my earlier comment about human populations not being very bright

[clive milne]

Originally Posted by el_draco

Nothing like "head in the sand" ideology and boring platitudes... we have already passed two degrees...

Come on Rom... Queensbury rules, and all that.

fwiw) We haven't passed 2 degrees globally (except at high latitudes)
But we have most certainly locked in at least 2 degrees once the system has stabilised.

That being said, I believe even at 1 degree (which is where we are now) the siberian continental shelf methane positive feedback loop is now out of our control. This means game over basically, no matter what we try and do about it.

To elaborate on that a little, the continental shelf is quite shallow (less than 100 feet deep). The bio-matter there has been kept at 0C more or less year round due to the latent heat of the sea ice in the area.
That sea ice is no longer there during the summer months so the perma frost is thawing releasing methane at an exponentially increasing rate.

The quantity of methane that will be released in the next decade is of such a magnitude as to dwarf our global GHG impact. (by almost an order of magnitude).

There is no way to sugar coat it.
Civilisation as we know it cannot survive this.

[Jeff]

We haven't passed 2 degrees globally (except at high latitudes)
But we have most certainly locked in at least 2 degrees once the system has stabilised.

That being said, I believe even at 1 degree (which is where we are now) the siberian continental shelf methane positive feedback loop is now out of our control. This means game over basically, no matter what we try and do about it.

To elaborate on that a little, the continental shelf is quite shallow (less than 100 feet deep). The bio-matter there has been kept at 0C more or less year round due to the latent heat of the sea ice in the area.
That sea ice is no longer there during the summer months so the perma frost is thawing releasing methane at an exponentially increasing rate.

The quantity of methane that will be released in the next decade is of such a magnitude as to dwarf our global GHG impact. (by almost an order of magnitude).

I agree with that analysis. Methane release from permafrost will have a big impact on greenhouse behaviour. But overall impact to global temperature is very difficult to model due to increased evaporation and cloud cover … reflecting more of the inbound radiation.

Climate impacts will be severe - significant changes to wind and precipitation patterns, more extreme weather, major fertile regions becoming arid and vice versa, coastal erosion, etc.

Sime devastating human impacts will hit those least equipped to cope … island communities inundated by sea level rise, and less affluent nations ravaged by droughts, floods, and cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons.

But it's not all doom and gloom.
By 2070 I expect the NBN rollout will be completed.

[AussieTrooper (Ben)]

Originally Posted by geolindon

i think the pessimistic view, is at least in part, self contradicting;

The diabolical economics is our best population control. Economically successful countries/families do not have enough children to maintain the population numbers, Australia has a declining population without net immigration despite bonus $$ for having a baby. Logan, please get a good high tax paying job so i and a coupla others can have a good pension for our many twilight years .

In every western country there is mass immigration from the third world. So the population still increases. Most notably there is a massive increase in a person's carbon footprint when they move from a poor country to a rich one.

[raymo]

When pondering upon the likely future of our poor beleaguered planet,
I like to look at the wider picture. Climate change is only one of a number
of factors involved in future living conditions, some are physical threats,
and some are more psychological, or perhaps better described as emotional;
our happiness quotient if you like.
Listed in no particular order of importance.
Over population.[Humanity, probably the worst biological entity to have arisen on this planet].

Climate change [ future effects guessed at at this stage].

Mass immigration [ numbers great enough to eventually thoroughly dilute the original culture and way of life of the receiving countries]. Already well under way in the U.K. In so many ways not the country I was brought up in; I would hate to live there now.

Artificial intelligence [potential threat]

Robots [putting ever increasing numbers of people out of work,
with nothing else in the offing to occupy their time or provide income.

Social media[ my pet hate. Cyber bullying and occasional consequent
suicides, kids sitting next to each other and texting each other, or
"look at this wonderful picture of what I cooked for dinner", who gives
a ---- what he/she [ see I'm not sexist] cooked?

46% of workers today are casual, hence the stress for many of them
of job insecurity, no sick leave etc:

Political correctness foisted upon us by people with nothing better to do
with their lives [this is changing our society much more than many people realise, what with Universities pushing this rubbish; becoming a bit of
a police state.

There are more factors, but I won't bore you with any more; I've had my
octogenarian's rant. Happy future youngsters.
raymo

[multiweb (Marc)]

Originally Posted by raymo

Artificial intelligence [potential threat]

AI will probably help us work out how much time we have left, then it will become sentient and avoid us all the trouble by eradicating us as it will figure out it is the most efficient route.

[alan meehan (Alan)]

just finished the series 100 that's were will be better sharpen my sword

[geolindon (Lindon)]

Originally Posted by AussieTrooper

In every western country there is mass immigration from the third world. So the population still increases. Most notably there is a massive increase in a person's carbon footprint when they move from a poor country to a rich one.

g day Ben and congrats, that is a cool list of provisional discoveries.

immigration from 3rd world to 2nd or 1st increases the population of the 2nd or 1st but reduces that of the 3rd world. Global population net 0 change. Except when they get on boats in the Mediterranean or Timor Seas, then there is a net -ve change by drowning
however now that 3rd worlder is in the 1st world they will breed far far less and there is a dramatic reduction in the global population compared to what would have been had they stayed 3rd world and compounding each subsequent generation. China has achieved this result by moving their economy 'up' the scale, far more effectively than the one child policy did.
now if we can just get them to re-use their 1st world coffee cups your last point is also covered

regards, L

[AussieTrooper (Ben)]

Cheers Lindon. If anyone wants the guide that I wrote on how to do it. PM me.


China is an interesting case. An absolute scumbag leadership, but on many levels heading in the right direction.

I'm not as pessimistic as many. The free market sorts it out.
Example:
Governments have argued for years about renewable energy. In the mean time, private enterprise saw the opportunity and took it. Right now there is somewhere between 10 and 20GW of enquiries from renewable generators in Victoria alone. By way of comparison, the peak load in Vic is generally about 10GW. If only half of it gets built, we will exceed the government's targets. Whether they like it or not.

[AndyG (Andy)]

Originally Posted by geolindon

immigration from 3rd world to 2nd or 1st increases the population of the 2nd or 1st but reduces that of the 3rd world...
however now that 3rd worlder is in the 1st world they will breed far far less and there is a dramatic reduction in the global population compared to what would have been had they stayed 3rd world and compounding each subsequent generation...

You serious? Any studies you could point to for clarification? Townsville (for example) has been a big drop off point for many refugees. I don't see them breeding any less.. The only thing that drops is infant mortality. Traditionally, they bare many young to offset expected losses, but those losses plummet the moment they set foot here. Net result? More people. Resources wise, they chew more than they ever did "back home" (Thanks to schooling, electricity, western comforts, etc). To their credit, they use public transport more than most - a genuine personal impost here, unlike more developed cities.