Tiangong-1 space station uncontrolled re-entry expected March-April 2018

[gary]

The Tiangong-1 space station will reenter Earth’s atmosphere and substantially burn up in the March–April 2018 timeframe.

Updates here :-
http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2...entry-updates/
and here :-
http://en.cmse.gov.cn/col/col1763/index.html

FAQ here :-
http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2...d-questions-2/

Originally planned to make a controlled re-entry over the Pacific, ground
controllers lost control of the spacecraft in 2016 and it will now make
an uncontrolled re-entry. As at today, that could be anywhere between
42.8 degrees North latitude and 42.8 degrees South - a substantial area
of the Earth's surface.

Originally Posted by ESA

Only from one day before the actual reentry will it become possible to roughly predict which ground tracks, and hence which regions on Earth, might witness the reentry.

But even then, an impact location prediction on the order kilometres is, for an uncontrolled reentry, beyond current technical capabilities due to complexities of modelling the atmosphere, the dynamics of the reentering object and limitations in observing the spacecraft.

In general, the uncertainty associated with an uncontrolled reentry prediction is on the order of 20% of the remaining orbital lifetime. Practically, this means that even 7 hours before the actual reentry, the uncertainty on the break-up location is a full orbital revolution – meaning plus or minus thousands of km!

[gary]

Update 30 March 2018

The current estimated reentry window runs from the night of 31 March to the late evening of 1 April (in UTC time); this is highly variable.

Today’s new forecast is a noticeable change from that of yesterday, and is due to solar activity.

[04Stefan07 (Stefan)]

Thanks for the information.

That FAQ is great.

[doppler (Rick)]

Heavens above has got a live tracking map http://www.heavens-above.com/ and if you input your coordinates you can see what times it will pass over your location. You should select all passes not just the visible ones, if it burns up late at night it will become visible. I get a couple of good passes at those times at around 10.30pm and 11.00pm, just need the clouds to part.

[gary]

Update 11:00 CET, 31 March 2018

The space debris team at ESA have adapted their reentry forecast over the last 24 hr to take into consideration the conditions of low solar activity. New data received overnight gave further confirmation that the forecast window is moving to later on 1 April UTC.

The team now are forecasting a window centred around 23:25 UTC on 1 April (09:35 AEST on 2 April) and running from the afternoon of 1 April UTC to the early morning on 2 April UTC. This remains highly variable.

[OzEclipse (Joe Cali)]

Thanks Gary

SE Australia gets to view 6 passes between 1520 EST this afternoon and midnight tonight, then nothing until 1440 EST tomorrow. Unfortunately, weather forecasts not looking good for this afternoon and evening. Better forecast for tomorrow.

I remember staying up the night Skylab came down in 1979. Best source of info was the news broadcasts on the radio. How times have changed

Joe

[gary]

On-Orbit Status Update for Tianggong-1 (Apr.2)

2018-04-02

According to the announcement of China Manned Space Agency(CMSA),at 5 am, Apr.2,2018, Tiangong-1 stayed at an average altitude of about 138.8 km (perigee: 136.0 km; apogee: 141.6 km; inclination:42.70°). The estimated reentry time is at 8:49 am (the earliest time is at 8:11 am and the latest time is at 9:33 am ).on 2 April, Beijing time. The reentry center is located at 19.4°W and 10.2°S.

8:11am Beijing time correspond to 10:11am AEST.
8:49am Beijing time corresponds to 10:49am AEST.
9:33am Beijing time corresponds to 11:33am AEST.

[gary]

According to the announcement of China Manned Space Agency(CMSA),at 6:20 am, Apr.2,2018, Tiangong-1 stayed at an average altitude of about 132.75 km (perigee:130.9 km; apogee: 134.6 km; inclination:42.70°). The estimated reentry time is at 8:42 am (the earliest time is at 8:24 am and the latest time is at 9:01 am ), 2 April, Beijing time. The reentry center is located at 40.4°W and 27.4°S.

8:42am Beijing time correspond to 10:42am AEST.
8:24am Beijing time corresponds to 10:24am AEST.
9:01am Beijing time corresponds to 11:01am AEST.

[gary]

Impressive radar images of the space station made 9 hours ago by the German Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR) as it passed over the station showing it was still undamaged at the time :-

https://twitter.com/Fraunhofer_FHRe/...95795743690752

[gary]

UPDATE: #JFSCC confirmed #Tiangong1 reentered the atmosphere over the southern Pacific Ocean at ~5:16 p.m. (PST) April 1. For details see http://www.space-track.org

5:16pm PST April 1st corresponds to 10:16am AEST April 2nd.


https://twitter.com/18SPCS/status/98...heme%3D0%23%2F

[gary]

The JFSCC announcement said it confirmed re-entry through coordination
through counterparts in Australia and elsewhere.

In March of last year, US and Australian Departments of Defense made
operational the AFSPC C-band radar at the Harold E. Holt Naval Communications Station,
Exmouth, Western Australia.

It extends the coverage of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) into
the southern hemisphere and though owned by the U.S. Air Force
Space Command, level-one maintenance is being performed by
the Australian Department of Defence.

The Harold E. Holt station is also home to the optical Space Surveillance Telescope (SST),
which was relocated from White Sands New Mexico.

See :-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_...ance_Telescope

[astronobob (Bob)]

Down

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-space-station