AEMO flags negative lack of electricity reserves NSW Friday afternoon - loadshedding

[gary]

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued Market
Notice 57357 today (Friday 10 Feb 2017) that states -

Originally Posted by AEMO Market Notice 57357

Update - FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.


AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE


Update - FORECAST LACK OF RESERVE LEVEL 3 (LOR3) in the New South Wales region- PD PASA.

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice 57339

AEMO declares forecast LOR3 condition for the NSW Region for the following period.

Friday 10th February 2017 from 1600 hrs to 1700 hrs

The minimum reserve available is -77

This calculation is based on a LOR3 trigger level of 0 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO will determine the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

LOR3 stands for Lack of Reserve level 3 - the highest designation.

When the notice was issued, the AEMO are projecting that the
amount of electricity NSW will be consuming today between 16:00 AEST
and 17:00 AEST exceeds that which operators have bid for.

AEMO has the power to intervene and request a power provider
come online and provide power at the market price that would have
likely been paid at that moment if they had not intervened - currently
estimated at $14,000/MWh, much higher than the current $299MW/h.

At LOR3, AEMO's charter states -

Originally Posted by AEMO

Lack of Reserve Level 3

Action -
When AEMO considers that customer load (other than ancillary services or contracted
interruptible loads) would be, or is actually being, interrupted automatically or manually
in order to maintain or restore the security of the power system.

In other words, AEMO may ask network operators to cut the power to
various parts of the state in order to save the entire grid from collapsing.

In practical terms, this means if you live in NSW, you might want to
prepare yourself for the possibility of a blackout today this afternoon.

Hopefully that won't happen.

However, if you have elderly family members, make sure that they
are prepared just in case they are affected.

And if your computer is not on a UPS, be sure to save your work regularly.

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Wonder how the feds will spin that one, they can't exactly run the line that it is because of NSW having a "Heavy reliance on intermittent renewable power sources" (Ignoring the fact that there was a generator available in SA which could probably have covered the shortfall if AEMO had directed it to go online)

It is an interesting tactic for them to suggest that SA should have declared a state of emergency so they could take control out of the hands of the federal market operator and direct the available generator to go online. Not sure how well it plays to a thinking person for the federal government to blame the state government for not declaring an emergency in order to seize control from a federal government organisation.

Am I alone in wondering how short the government thinks my memory is? I can recall load shedding on very hot days being a normal occurrence in the past. Before that is the network operators "Gold plated" the networks, for which they get regularly smashed by the governments of all stripes.

[AndrewJ]

Before that is the network operators "Gold plated" the networks, for which they get regularly smashed by the governments of all stripes.

Irrespective of current blackouts, which ( appears ) to be due to businesses treating the electricity supply like a fish market, i have to agree the "gold plating" spree was totally wasteful in many cases and done in a very very inefficient manner.
I only have to look at the pole in front of my house to be reminded of it.

Andrew

[gary]

Hi Paul,

You are correct.

In the SA instance on the 8th Feb 2017, the Pelican Point operator
put out this press release yesterday -
http://engie.com.au/media/UploadedDo...tement%203.pdf

So in a nutshell, they claim they did not come online because AEMO
did not request them to come online.

The reliable supply of power in a market driven system is a keystone of
the AEMO charter.

What is suppose to happen under the AEMO charter is that they intervene
and demand that an operator come online.

As the world's power networks get a larger number of renewable
power generator assets, precisely what was engineered by design to
happen is to make sure that reserve power can be called upon if need be.

I mentioned yesterday about the California Energy Crises in 2000 and
2001 in which the infamous Enron corporation created artificial electricity
shortages on the network in order to raise the market price.

See -
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...1&postcount=18

Hypothetically, unscrupulous players have the potential to manipulate the
Australian electricity market to their advantage in a similar way to what Enron did.

For example, if you were unscrupulous and had large investments in
power generation using gas or coal, you could increase your market
share by creating artificial shortages during periods of emergency demand.

Like Enron, sit on your hands and make sure your plants stay down
for maintenance - so that load shedding would become inevitable.

In theory, you and gas and coal suppliers could lobby the federal government
that it is in their interests as well. What you could do is if there was
a state with an opposition government that happened to have higher
levels of renewable power generation is to turn a blind eye to reserve
power not being available in that state so that the consumers intentionally
suffer.

The very moment blackouts then occur, you could then theoretically
put some spin on it and blame it on the state government and their
policy on being forerunners in renewables.

If you get enough blackouts and disruptions, you could make people in that
state angry enough to throw out that government at the next state election.

This would have the added benefit and cast a shadow in the minds of people
as to the viability of renewables in other states. Coal and gas suppliers
and operators would then be able to take market share from
lower priced renewable suppliers.

Of course such a hypothetical would not be in the national interest,
would be unconscionable and would lead to jail sentences if you were
ever involved.

[el_draco (Rom)]

All those damn renewables again... this time in N.S.W. Imagine what TurnB.S. will say... "Its all S.A.'s fault...

[el_draco (Rom)]

Originally Posted by The_bluester

Am I alone in wondering how short the government thinks my memory is? I can recall load shedding on very hot days being a normal occurrence in the past. Before that is the network operators "Gold plated" the networks, for which they get regularly smashed by the governments of all stripes.

Oh yes, when I lived on the island over the ditch, I remember brown and blackouts in Summer were a regular occurrence. Never forgot that nightmare when it 40+ outside. Still, most people waste a hell of a lot of power as well. I look at my bill closely and my family uses about 25% to 30% less than the average just by being conscious of waste.

[casstony]

With a 3 or 4kw solar system being relatively cheap to buy these days, we need more panels on house roofs to take a bigger chunk out of that afternoon peak. Then when batteries become affordable we can smooth out the evening peak as well.

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Originally Posted by AndrewJ

Irrespective of current blackouts, which ( appears ) to be due to businesses treating the electricity supply like a fish market, i have to agree the "gold plating" spree was totally wasteful in many cases and done in a very very inefficient manner.
I only have to look at the pole in front of my house to be reminded of it.

Andrew

My point is that before "Gold plating" of the networks, load shedding was a common occurrence in hot weather. Even I can recall it just about every summer.

Ignoring yesterdays load shedding in SA which appears to be failure of the "Market" process to provide enough generation (Fancy that, the profit motive not providing a good social outcome) Avoiding load shedding in extreme weather requires the network to be built to withstand consequently extreme load, rather than average high load days. That costs money and then people complain about gold plating.


We as a community demand that the electricity network withstand the load of just about every household in the country getting home and turning the aircon on in 45 degree heat (And with airconditioners so large that they would have made a smallish office envious a decade or so back) but we scream blue bloody murder at the cost implicit in the network being built to cater to those couple of days of extreme demand.

"Gold plated" versus "Load shedding", we can't have it both ways.

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Originally Posted by casstony

With a 3 or 4kw solar system being relatively cheap to buy these days, we need more panels on house roofs to take a bigger chunk out of that afternoon peak. Then when batteries become affordable we can smooth out the evening peak as well.

Not gong to argue with that point. We have held off and held off and now that silly feed in tariffs are not distorting things and we can see the true nature of it all, I hope we can manage to install a decently sized system in the near future. It would be nice in the current context to be able to supply enough to at least cover our own aircon demand and be able to run that guilt free.

One aspect that most people seem to miss though is that a grid solar PV system generally shuts itself down when incoming mains fail (Safety measure so you do not have households backfeeding power into the grid when power workers are trying to work on it)

If I could find a system which would mostly cover our own demand year round, has compatibility with battery storage for when the battery systems become economically feasible and which disconnects itself from the mains and keeps on working in case of a mains fail I would be rapt.

[casstony]

Originally Posted by The_bluester

"Gold plated" versus "Load shedding", we can't have it both ways.

Once batteries are affordable we can have it all. My solar panels cover my air conditioning use until late in the day (nominal 3.5kw system). Once I can capture what I export I can cover the aircon into the night.

We need baseload generators with a lot of solar on rooftops run by the government to get it all to work together efficiently.

[glend (Glen)]

Interestingly, SA fell over after the roof top solar return to grid contribution dropped off as the sun started wanning. Home storage is going to bugger up them counting on that contribution at least until the home system is fully charged.

[casstony]

Originally Posted by The_bluester

If I could find a system which would mostly cover our own demand year round, has compatibility with battery storage for when the battery systems become economically feasible and which disconnects itself from the mains and keeps on working in case of a mains fail I would be rapt.

We run our air conditioner/s flat out because of our solar panels and our quarterly electricity bill is typically in the low to mid 200's. (with the standard feed in tariff)
I see eurosolar are advertising a 5kw system for $4240. Our 3.5kw system cost more than that a few years ago.

[glend (Glen)]

The ABC is now reporting that the aluminium smelter at Tomago NSW, near Newcastle, has been asked (and agreed to) shutdown earlier this afternoon. This smelter operation is responsible for 12% of NSW demand.
I imagine the smelter operators ( it has six pot lines) will not be too pleased but at least the NSW Energy Minister has taken some proactive action.

[AndrewJ]

My point is that before "Gold plating" of the networks, load shedding was a common occurrence in hot weather.

Dont disagree, but my point was a lot of money got spent ( made ) doing a lot of irrelevant stuff in an inefficient manner to gold plate the "poles and wires", vs "the network".
Ref the old thread
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...52&postcount=8

One lot of people came to replace my relatively new supply wire with a new one. Not withstanding the lame reason for doing this, they didnt fix the cross bar or do the neighbours house at the same time?????
Since then a separate crew did the neighbours house and late last year yet another crew came through and did the crossbars.
All were different contractors.
Just a waste of time and money, it would probably have all been done at the same time under the old SEC.

Re Aircons being the culprits etc, fully agree, but with our govt allowing whole blocks to be covered with multi units, or McMansions with black roofs, no eaves and no gardens, we are also increasing the "heat island" effects.
Its interesting out my way as i have heard that some of the local sewerage systems are getting near their capacity as single houses are being replaced by buildings with 10-30 units in them.
This could lead to brownouts rolling instead of rolling brownouts

Andrew


Andrew

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Interesting to hear on the radio on my way home from work that the AEMO defence (if you can call it that) amounts to "we misjudged the likely demand"

The market operator (which answers to the federal government) can't get it right but the federal government criticises the state government (when they are not blaming renewables) for not declaring a state of emergency to wrest control from their own controlling body!

[The_bluester (Paul)]

Andrew, I can't read the bulk of that thread for some reason on my iPad, I can only see the post of yours that you linked to but it sounds a little odd. Replacing drop wires might have been under the direction of the regulator (there are minimum ground clearances required under industry rules) but I have no way of knowing.

Assuming you mean an LV crossarm, replacing one of those is not just a job for a couple of blokes with a ladder. In the past that would have meant a shutdown of your whole street/area from the pole sub, but under new techniques it is done live. People do not like power outages as yesterday proves, so the mantra has changed from "how small can we make the shutdown area" to "how can we do this live" which involves a lot more people and equipment to do it safely. Again, we have to pay for that added complexity.

You can probably tell, I work in the industry, I work on a peripheral part, not the electrical network itself.

[AndrewJ]

Gday Paul
There is a little option button in top right "Thread" that takes you to the thread, but otherwise it is
http://www.iceinspace.com.au/forum/s...52#post1100752

You are correct that it was ground clearance over my driveway
but the old wires were only 15 odd yrs old and were put in by the SECV.
( And the reason they went over my driveway in the first place was they had to minimise how much of the cable went over my neighbours property )
Also, it wasnt done by a few blokes with a ladder, it was a full blown truck with bucket, and the back of the truck had enough parts on it to wire up a street.
Even if they couldnt replace the crossarm, they could have done the neighbours supply as it was an old exposed copper job.

Andrew

[gary]

Originally Posted by The_bluester

Interesting to hear on the radio on my way home from work that the AEMO defence (if you can call it that) amounts to "we misjudged the likely demand"

The market operator (which answers to the federal government) can't get it right but the federal government criticises the state government (when they are not blaming renewables) for not declaring a state of emergency to wrest control from their own controlling body!

Hi Paul,

Indeed.

The Australian electricity market is governed by a document called the National Electricity Rules.

Chapter 4 is devoted to Power System Security.

Originally Posted by National Electricity Rules

Chapter 4

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 Purpose
(a) This Chapter:
(1) provides the framework for achieving and maintaining a secure power system;
(2) provides the conditions under which AEMO can intervene in the processes of the spot market and issue directions to Registered Participants so as to maintain or re-establish a secure and reliable power system;

This means that the AEMO is responsible for maintaining the security of
power supply and it is they who are responsible on a minute-by-minute
basis to intervene and ask for a power plant to come online.

The rules can be found here -
http://www.aemc.gov.au/Energy-Rules/...les-Version-80

So when Federal Minister for the Environment and Energy, Josh Frydenberg,
as quoted on ABC news says, "Under the rules, it is solely up to the
South Australian Government to decide if there was an emergency,
and in doing so be in a position to direct Pelican Point to supply", he
is not being entirely honest.

There was no state of emergency in SA as there is no state of emergency
in NSW today.

So there is no requirement for a minister within a state government to
intervene and request for additional power.

Under the National Electricity Rules, that is what exactly AEMO is there
to do. The buck stops with them.

Either that or we set a new precedent and declare every hot
day that ever happens a 'Declared State of Emergency".

But it might be easier to replace the Federal Minister for the Environment
and Energy for someone who has actually read the National Electricity Rules.

[gary]

The Australian Financial review is reporting this afternoon that
"Newcastle's Tomago smelter braces for possible 'catastrophe'".

Originally Posted by AFR Fri 10 2017

The head of Newcastle's giant Tomago aluminium smelter said it could be hit by a Portland Aluminium-style "catastrophe" after being warned to brace for rolling power outages amid forecast shortages on Friday afternoon.

Energy minister Josh Frydenberg also asked the Australian Energy Regulator to investigate French company Engie for failing to respond to an urgent plea for more generation in South Australia on Wednesday as that state faced blackouts.

As NSW headed towards its record power demand in 36 degree heat, Matt Howell, chief executive, said Tomago Aluminium had been notified that it will have to curtail its huge electricity demand from 3.45pm if the state's expected shortfall in supply isn't solved.

Mr Howell said up to 80 of the plant's 1000 staff would have to work through the outages in blistering heat to minimise the chances of the 590,000 tonne a year smelter's three potlines freezing - as one of Portland Aluminium's potlines did when a blackout hit western Victoria in December.

Wholesale electricity prices in NSW are forecast to hit the $14,000/ per megawatt hour National Electricity Market maximum in NSW between 2.30pm and 7pm. The Tomago smelter draws 12 per cent of NSW's power.

"We will take each of the potlines off for up to one and a quarter hours each one after the other. That can be an extremely serious situation. There is no guarantee we can bring them back immediately," Mr Howell said.

"We have seen what happened at Portland. If it doesn't come back on it's a catastrophe." Tomago Aluminium is a joint venture of Rio Tinto, CSR, Alcan Australia and Hydro Aluminium.

Portland Aluminum lost power for about 5 hours in the early hours of December 1 and was unable to revive one of its potlines afterwards.

The aluminium in the potline solidified, necessitating a huge clean up job and a $240 million bailout funded by the Victorian and federal governments to persuade Alcoa of Australia to keep the facility open in the face of soaring electricity prices and a weak aluminum market.

Queensland's Boyne aluminium smelter has been forced to slash jobs and production by soaring electricity prices, and more big plant closures could be on the cards.

The crisis comes after South Australia on Wednesday suffered its third blackout or power outage episode in five months, which sparked another bout of finger pointing in national politics.

Story here -

http://www.afr.com/news/newcastles-t...0170210-gua1l4

[glend (Glen)]

That is just rubbish, they rolled out the local Labour MP as well on the ABC. This statement by the Tomago Aluminium CEO is nothing more than posturing to impress his union workforce, and possibly gain some publicity. That facts:
Tomago Aluminum has an energy supply contract with AGL.
In that contract is a clause allowing AGL to restrict supply when required due to grid pressures. The Labour MP acknowledged this under questioning by ABC.
This is not the first time this has happened, there have been at least two other instances where AGL restricted supply to Tomago Aluminium, that passed by without incident or comment.
Clearly this is being "played" by the Tomago Auminium CEO and the local Labour MP for their own purposes.
Interestingly, VISY Paper Mill in Tumut was also restricted and we have heard no such posturing by them.
Everyone seems to be trying to politicise the energy debate for their own purposes - surprise, surprise.