The BOM reports in the Climate Model Summary for August to
December 2022 issued 12 July and updated today, 2 August :-
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BOM
Negative IOD likely to continue through spring; models suggest La Niña may return later in 2022
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. All model outlooks indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event increases the chances of above average winter and spring rainfall across much of Australia, as well as influencing rainfall patterns in countries around the Indian Ocean basin.
While the 2021–22 La Niña has ended, a La Niña WATCH remains, meaning there is around a 50% chance of a La Niña event returning later in 2022. Most models predict neutral conditions until the end of August. However, by October four of seven models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will cool again to La Niña levels. It is likely that ocean temperature patterns in the Pacific will still contribute to wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia, even if La Niña thresholds are not reached.
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Reference :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-...#tabs=Overview