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Old 06-11-2012, 05:58 PM
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Phil Hart
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Mount Glasgow (central Vic)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geoffsims View Post
One of the nice features on Fred B's eclipsewx.com site is that for a number of locations, he has indicated on the maps where a 9km cloud would block the view of the Sun.

The stills from each morning are archived, so you can get an idea, each day, from a number of sites, if the eclipse would have been visible or not.
Thanks Geoff.. I hadn't spent too much time on Fred's site yet but it's certainly worth a look.

A quick analysis of his archive images for the last 19 days yields the following breakdown, which I think is pretty similar to the results I've shown:

Cairns: Yes 3, Maybe 6, No 10
Port Douglas: Yes 5, Maybe 3, No 11
Mulligan Highway: Yes 12, Maybe 4, No 3

Very roughly a 70% chance of success 60km inland and about a 35% chance on the coast. The bad days inland are generally associated with bigger disturbances like the decaying trough which will move through late this week and the weekend. Hopefully a more typical pattern reasserts itself by eclipse day.

I think that's a pretty convincing argument for heading inland for those who can. Just a pity the roads won't accommodate that many people! Of course you can get lucky or unlucky anywhere on the day!

cheers
Phil
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