[Phil Hart]

Monday 5th November

Synoptic Situation: A trough extends over central coast waters into the central interior of Queensland and is expected to weaken as it contracts further north on Monday. A high over the Tasman Sea will move southeast towards New Zealand over the next couple of days, maintaining a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast.

North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Isolated showers about the coast, ranges and southern Tablelands, tending scattered along the coast and ranges south of Cape Tribulation. Fine and partly cloudy for the remainder. Moderate S/SE winds, becoming fresh and gusty about the coast during the day.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, particularly before eclipse time, and a little over the ranges. Generally clear inland but some cloud patches shown in the middle of Cape York.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore (a little heavier than average forecast) plus the now familiar indication of low cloud over Mt Carbine. A small amount of high cloud (patches east and west of Cairns).
EU: 40-80% low cloud for Cairns and Port Douglas, with some mid-level cloud coming in later. Less than 30% low cloud 60km inland, 50% at Mt Carbine.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Broken cloud cover or scattered clouds.
Elsewhere: Cloud along the coast and over the ranges. Actually relatively clear further offshore but from Cairns webcam sun was behind cloud more often than not. Generally clear skies 60km inland.

Models repeating a similar pattern to previous days and a similar result observed. Outright luck as to whether your location on the coast has a gap at the right time in this kind of pattern.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30% (hard to say) [EDIT - probably quite a bit higher except for Cairns]
60km Inland: ~90%