[Phil Hart]

Sunday 4th November

Synoptic Situation: A high pressure system lies just east of Victoria and is expected to strengthen as it drifts further east into the Tasman Sea over the next couple of days, extending a firm ridge along much of the east Queensland coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Mainly fine, partly cloudy, isolated showers developing during the afternoon and evening south of about Cairns and southern Tablelands.. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Low cloud offshore, clear skies inland.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore. High cloud across southern track area and offshore well east of Cairns.
EU: 30-40% low cloud for Cairns, 50-60% for Port Douglas. Both clear by middle of the day. Pretty clear skies inland, but low clouds still shown at Mt Carbine (30%).

Observed Weather
Thin line of low cloud lying along the coast and scattered clouds over the ranges. Clear inland.
Skies improving through the morning at Cairns with the sun just into clear skies at eclipse time. Would have needed similar luck elsewhere along coast. Clear view at eclipse time from Mt Carbine and Mareeba.

I give all the models a nod again for the broad picture with respect to low cloud offshore and over the ranges. US model closer to the mark on the high cloud today as there was high cloud to the east of Cairns (clearer over land eclipse track at eclipse time than the model suggested though).

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50%
60km Inland: ~95%