[Phil Hart]

Wednesday 31st October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the central Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along Queensland's east coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast: Mainly fine, Isolated morning coastal shower or two. Light to moderate E to SE winds.
Cairns Forecast: Fine, mostly sunny.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Generally clear. A little low cloud offshore (close to the coast) and possibly a little over the ranges (hard to discern), more so south of the eclipse area.
Skippy Sky: Low cloud offshore and again indicated around Mt Carbine. Heavy high cloud shown lined up across the inland eclipse path.
EU: 30-60% low cloud along the coast. 0-30% low cloud 60km inland, a little more at Mt Carbine closer to the ranges.

Similar patterns to previous days and similar predictions from the models, which have done well on the broad picture and even some of the details. US model again predicted a band of high cloud that was not present.

On another note about the the US Model (via Skippy Sky).. it clearly has a model grid point near Mt Carbine. There is often a point of low cloud in the models shown here, but the resolution of the model is not sufficient to show the real pattern of how this may extend to other areas of the ranges.

It's clearly an artifact that this one high elevation point in the model generates a diamond shaped spike for low cloud, and interpolates to zero at the surrounding grid points. I don't think it should be interpreted as meaning the model can tell something special about this location as compared to others along the ranges.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Luckily clear at eclipse time.
Elsewhere: Clouds just offshore and over the ranges behind Port Douglas would have blocked the view for many on the coast. Generally clear across the inland path, although a large area of cloud just south of the track.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~50% (very hard to estimate)
60km Inland: ~90%