[Phil Hart]

Sunday 28th October

Synoptic Situation: A high over the Tasman Sea extends a weakening ridge along the east coast of Queensland.
Forecast: Isolated morning fogs about the Tablelands and southern coast, clearing to a fine though a partly cloudy day. Light to moderate SE to NE winds.

Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Clear skies. Some low cloud only clearing inland late in the night and some low cloud offshore later in the morning.
Skippy Sky: Clear skies, except for indicated 20-30% high cloud, up to 50% on both north and south sides of eclipse track.
EU: Clear skies in Cairns with just a small amount (5-20%) low cloud indicated for Port Douglas. Clear skies inland.

Observed Weather
Cairns: Clear skies except for some thin/isolated fog patches visible on webcam (unlikely to have caused an issue).
Elsewhere: Clear skies in the southern half of eclipse track, but a band of cloud extending across Cape York in the northern half with heavier cover further west. Only thin/isolated clouds towards eastern end (60km in from coast).

The narrow band of cloud across Cape York was below the resolution/ability of most models (but the BoM model picked it quite well, it just took an extra couple of hours to clear). Despite that, all the models were broadly correct.

Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: >90%
60km Inland: >70%