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Sunday 21st October
Synoptic Situation: SE winds. Broad high pressure ridge over FNQ.
Forecast: Isolated light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly north of Cairns. Moderate SE'ly winds, fresh and gusty during the day north of Cairns.
Observed Weather: Extensive patchy cloud offshore, extending around 30km inland in northern area of eclipse track. Clear inland of Cairns.
Cloud Forecasts
BoM Access Model: Patchy low cloud offshore, some pushing a little inland but more so north of eclipse area.
Skippy Sky: Areas of low cloud SE and south of Cairns and one small area north of Port Douglas. Otherwise clear.
EU: Clear in Cairns, 70% low cloud Port Douglas. 5% (Mt Gibson) to 30% (Mt Carbine) low cloud inland.
On this occasion, an average of the three cloud models (all broadly similar) would have been a pretty reasonable indication of weather on the day.
Chance of Success (if eclipse had been this day)
Coast: ~30-40%
60km Inland: ~80% (a lot less closer to the ranges)
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