With about three weeks to go, I figure it's time to start monitoring the daily weather in the Cairns region to support optimal decision making for the eclipse itself. The build-up to the wet season will be further progressed in three weeks time, but current weather patterns are already well worth watching. My primary interest though is comparing the cloud models over the next few weeks to the actual weather, so that we have a better idea how much faith to place in them on the evening of 13th November!
The three cloud forecasts I reference are:
BoM Access Model:
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/ljr/pr...rcs/ani_a.html
US GFS Model via Skippy Sky:
http://skippysky.com.au/Australia/ (Andrew has even setup a Cairns area chart)
European Model via yr.no:
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Que..._detailed.html
More details about cloud forecasts in general here:
http://philhart.com/content/cloud-fo...an-astronomers
I'll try to make this same report for as many days as I can, but perhaps others can fill in when I miss out. Observations from anybody in the area especially welcome, otherwise I am relying on the satellite and radar images and the Cairns
webcam.
Friday 19th October
- Synoptic Situation: SE winds. High pressure centred well east of NSW with ridge up to FNQ.
- BoM Forecast: Scattered light showers about the coast and ranges, mainly during the morning and evening. Moderate SE winds.
- Observed Weather: Overcast (low cloud), showers.
Cloud Forecasts
- BoM Access Model: Quite good match on extent of low cloud.
- Skippy Sky: Shows lots of high cloud over FNQ that is not present. Shows some low cloud but poor match on its extent.
- EU: Quite good match for Port Douglas/Mt Carbine etc.
Chance of success
- Coast: <5% chance
- 80km Inland: <10% chance
Phil