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Leon,
Not sure how many photos you might end up with, but being on permanent vacation, I could envisage you might be likely to have 1000's.
If you had 3000 that would be 2GB on the old iPad but more like 6-7GB on the new one, now add a few short videos straight off the camera I could see it adding up pretty quickly.
Any eBooks or magazine subscriptions, maybe some video/podcasts of all the 101 astronomy series ?
You'll have a better idea than me, but you never know just how much you might like this thing and how you will end up using it in ways you never expected or realised existed.
I'd at least go the next size up to the one you have calculated.
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