I was reading a freely available, widespread document the other day by an Astrophysics-type scientist who declares his religion to be Catholic (Dermott J. Mullan, is his name). D. J. Mullan is a member of the Bartol Research Center in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Delaware, where he has been Professor since 1982.
His Biography is here.
The paper is quite a good read, and its all over the web at the moment.
Here is part of his conclusion:
Quote:
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With all of these assumptions, we find that the probability of assembling the RNA required for even the most primitive (12-14) cell** by random processes, in the time available, {1.11 billion years}, is no more than one in 10^79.
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Note**: A (12-14) cell is defined as being a cell that is able to function with only 12 proteins and that each protein consists of a chain of no more than 14 amino acids (ie: highly minimalist when compared with a modern-day cell). There are a bunch of other assumptions behind this figure .. a read of the paper reveals each one, as well as the sensitivity of varying them compared with this final figure. (Note that he also assumes that the RNA sequence, from which these proteins are derived, is already present, and is thus not included in the above probability estimation, as trying to generate this sequence randomly, results in an absurdly small probability figure).
He also eventually manages to whittle this down to one in 10^63.
By way of comparison, the number of atoms in the universe is estimated to be about 10^80, (I think).
Even with all of the simplest definitions of life we can come up with, there is still some explaining to do in coming up with a modern day cell .. and I think we all recognise this. I, for one, am happy to leave it at this point, without jumping to any further conclusions.
Its an interesting read .. and an interesting point.
Cheers