Guys, this conversation only works if we don't dig in too much on either side.
The fact is that no-one has ever cracked this nut … and they may never crack it. There are gaping holes in both arguments.
My personal aim is to stand as close to the middle-road as I can (and its not easy .. I have views/beliefs and opinions as well) .. and again, my aim is to expose my own opinions for myself, and recognise them for what they are … ie: pure opinions.
The points raised so far, are all valid points.
I'm not particularly of the view that one can cite any specific Law of Thermodynamics, (like the 2nd Law), and apply it to the overall life emergence process. I think the thermodynamic argument needs to look holistically at the applicability of all the Laws across the whole theorised process, and then pose the question: exactly where are they applicable to specific parts of the end-to-end complex system (such as the theorised emergence process). This allows for recognition of the non-determinstic (ie: random) components and to look at teh effects these may have on the overall theorised process.
This approach may aid Peter's colleagues' argument in uncovering some of the mysterious "statistical fluke" aspects. It also provides more depth of insight into exploring the other side of the coin, also. The interaction of deterministic sub-processes, (on the basic chemistry side), and the random pure chance mutation/natural selection-over-vast-time sub-processes on the evolutionary side should also not be underestimated (?)
Also, I'm not presenting Szostack's theory as be-all and end-all theory. There are others … however, it does represent a fairly comprehensive and well thought out biological sciences view of the topic. (At the very least, it seems to provide some useful tools as the basis for discussion).
I recommend moving on to examining more evidence and probing the question: "What's the closest we've come to discovering exo-life"
I'll attempt that in another post.
Cheers & thanks for some interesting views. Hopefully this one won't go south .. like so many others have on this topic.
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