View Single Post
  #20  
Old 14-09-2011, 06:46 PM
CraigS's Avatar
CraigS
Unpredictable

CraigS is offline
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Australia
Posts: 3,023
Quote:
Originally Posted by gary View Post
Hi Craig,

Language that would leave even the best bookmaker scratching their head.

But I can see where they are coming from to an extent, particularly when they mention that "The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA.
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the
chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia.
"

The El Niño/La Niña Pacific cycle is the one most people have heard of and historically seems to have been the one studied for longer and in more depth compared to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Where the events in Australia late last year and early this year were
extraordinary was that there was this "perfect storm" conjunction of an
extremely positive SOI La Niña and an extremely negative Indian Ocean
Dipole. This time around they appear to be saying that at least the IOD is positive, pulling in the other direction to the weak La Niña as it were, a positive IOD usually bringing drier weather for southeast and central Australia.

And a positive IOD might be possibly be a win-win for Australia and parts of Africa, with the hope that at least some parts of the Horn of Africa might get some much needed rainfall.
Yes, I suppose its a lot easier to predict once they can see these structures actually forming .. but how about predictions > 1 year in advance ?

These guys think they've got it all sorted …
Can scientists look at next year's climate?
Quote:
Is it possible to make valid climate predictions that go beyond weeks, months, even a year? UCLA atmospheric scientists report they have now made long-term climate forecasts that are among the best ever -- predicting climate up to 16 months in advance, nearly twice the length of time previously achieved by climate scientists.
(Unfortunately, the paper is behind a paywall).

Hmm .. I'll believe it when I see it being used by the BOM, and making predictions which give folk enough time to batten down the hatches, eh ?


Cheers
Reply With Quote