[gary]

Originally Posted by CraigS

Sounds like 'the usual' each-way bet, there Gary !

Cheers

Hi Craig,

Language that would leave even the best bookmaker scratching their head.

But I can see where they are coming from to an extent, particularly when they
mention that "The latest observations from the Indian Ocean show the development of a
positive dipole event, as predicted over the last few months by climate models, including the Bureau's POAMA.
Typically peaking in spring, positive dipole modes increase the
chance of below average rainfall over southeastern and central Australia."

The El Niño/La Niña Pacific cycle is the one most people have heard of and historically
seems to have been the one studied for longer and in more depth compared to the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Where the events in Australia late last year and early this year were
extraordinary was that there was this "perfect storm" conjunction of an
extremely positive SOI La Niña and an extremely negative Indian Ocean
Dipole. This time around they appear to be saying that at least the IOD is positive,
pulling in the other direction to the weak La Niña as it were, a positive IOD
usually bringing drier weather for southeast and central Australia.

And a positive IOD might be possibly be a win-win for Australia and parts of Africa,
with the hope that at least some parts of the Horn of Africa might get some much
needed rainfall.