Quote:
Originally Posted by supernova1965
The title of the thread is where I base my statement that you don't believe life is out there it is hard to argue that you are not firm in the fact that you don't believe.
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The title is not
my opinion ! It is a mathematically legitimate outcome from the analysis. It carries no more weight than the optimistic "Life IS Possible" statement !
The quote in my orginal post also points this out .. here it is again ..
Quote:
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David Spiegel and Edwin Turner of Princeton University have submitted a paper to arXiv that turns the Drake equation on its head. Instead of assuming that life would naturally evolve if conditions were similar to that found here on Earth, the two use Bayesian reasoning to show that just because we evolved in such conditions, doesn’t mean that the same occurrence would necessarily happen elsewhere; using evidence of our own existence doesn’t show anything they argue, other than that we are here.
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If the same occurrence doesn't happen elsewhere, then a "null" outcome, ie: "NO life(forms)", is just as legitimate as either "different life(forms)" permutations. Neither of these is ruled out and at the same time, neither is directly supported (according to their analysis). The same occurrence elsewhere, is also not supported by the analysis.
Quote:
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As Spiegel and Turner point out, basing our expectations of life existing on other planets, for no better reason that it exists here, is really only proof that were are more than capable of deceiving ourselves into thinking that things are much more likely than they really are.
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.. and this point asserts the emotional/opinion/belief motivations underpinning either optimistic or pessimistic statements.
Cheers