You may well be right and certainly the Aussie tends to trend for a long time in one direction and that currently is up.
I thought the latest talk was of a rate fall. Who knows. Bananas force CPI up so there is talk of rate rise, consumer sentiment is bottomed out then talk of a rate drop.
A rate drop by Christmas is in my opinon most likely (RBA always overdoes it in one direction too long, always) and when that firms up the dollar will fall.
It is high primarily because we have super high interest rates compared to the rest of the west. There's are low because their economies are stil cactus.
If the US does not agree on this debt thing though - yes, $1.50 definitely rises above the horizon.
Either way we are in a great position to get good gear for once at a discount - amazing.
You know the Ausie dollar was US47 cents not that long ago (well - 12 years ago or so).
Anyway all this conjecture and we all make up our own mind about it when making puchase decisions.
In fact all this is academic if we don't have the money to buy now anyway!!
You know the US is stil the world's largest manufacturer by a large margin. You probably thought it was China right?
It is not even close. All those super expensive jets etc.
Greg.