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The way the US budget and deficit is going the space program will be cancelled indefinitely. Pretty soon the US will need to bring all its troops home and keep out of international affairs. The current debt talks are producing nothing and one sure way to reduce their debt would be to bring home the 160,000 + troops (read navy, airforce and army) from all over the world. However they will cut the space program first and foremost before they cut the business of war. US committment at present is costing something like 1 billion a day to service all their military. At least I think that is what I heard recently on 24.
I actually thought Ares was a dud anyway. There is no way you could lock 4-6 people up in that capsule for 6 months to Mars and then wait another 18 months on the surface and then spend another 6 months again in that tin can. For interplanetary travel I would expect something about a 1km long with a shielded habitat area of say 50-100m which would have an area for artifical gravity, crew retreat areas and science blocks. This would remain in orbit around the destination planet while a lander went to the surface and returned. That is going to cost billions and billions of dollars and would need to be built by nearly every country on earth. The political will is not currently there and so we will not see a manned mission to Mars in our lifetimes now.
Will the US ever return to space? Maybe not in the next 10 or so years. Currently they are in a lot of strife which they essentially caused from lack of governance. They will not recover from their current situation until they cut spending and part of that has to include Military and space programs. So I would think nothing will replace the space shuttle system, which was very old and finding parts was getting harder and harder. Looks like the Chinese or perhaps India will be back to the moon first and then onwards and outwards. Forget the US Trevor, they are finished with space.
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