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Old 20-06-2011, 04:20 PM
gary
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Mt. Kuring-Gai
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Risk assessment

Quote:
Originally Posted by CraigS View Post

I wonder how the risks compare (which of the two is more likely), and which of the two has a greater sustained impact ?
Hi Craig,

You might be interested in pages 2 to 3 (article pp 56-57) in the above cited IEEE Spectrum
article in the section under the heading "Risk Factors".
(Article here - http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/spacesci...molinski00.pdf )

The authors point out that -

Quote:
Originally Posted by IEEE Spectrum Nov 2000 page 56
"the danger of power systems suffering catastrophic events (outages or damages)
from GICs is modest compared to other hazards.
Most utilities in North America design their physical infrastructures to withstand
any wind storms or ice loadings except for a worse-case event - expected to happen
no more than once every 50 years. The risk of catastrophic damage or an outage
in any given grid system from GICs probably is much smaller than that. What is more,
damage incurred from a severe terrestrial storm would generally be more costly and
difficult to repair.
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