Here's
another geophysicist dude speaking authoritatively … (he's from the "Richard H Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center") … take a look at the 1:00 mark where he ends up saying that he thinks we have 'a few more (big ones) to worry about' (referring to the perceived clustering).
So, here's a
recent paper (dated 28 Oct 2010), which uses the latest (sophisticated) earthquake modelling techniques, which concludes:
Quote:
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These results could be interpreted that there are no correlations between any two seismic behavior. Our findings support the hypothesis that even if the statistical data of previous earthquakes is known, the magnitude of the next earthquake is still unpredictable. Finally, the scaling relation of waiting times for the weighted OFC model has been discussed and obtained.
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I'm overwhelmed by the lack of commonality on the issue of unpredictability (as is evidenced time and time again from the theory), and the message these guys deliver. The two are completely at odds with eachother.
Am I misunderstanding some thing here (I'm prepared to admit that this is more than possible
).
Cheers