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My point of my earlier post is that calculating/estimating probability is highly influenced by the set of assumptions rather than the size of the sample. In my example, I have shown an event with 99.9% probability of occurring with a sample of 10 and another example of an event with ~0% probability of occurring with a sample of trillions and trillions. By the same token, we should not rely on the sample size of planets count to estimate probability of life but rather we need to come up with a good set of assumptions to do so. Unfortunately, coming up with that set of assumptions is highly subjective.
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