Thread: Next comet?
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Old 03-12-2010, 08:01 PM
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CometGuy
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I've had a closer look at upcoming predicted comets.

Firstly, I don't think that 45P will be much to look at as even though it will be very close to earth in August, it will only have begun to activate and will be tough to see. At the time it would likely be a very diffuse 9th magnitude object. It then approaches the sun and may reach mag 6-7, but then will be too low to be seen from our latitudes.

2009P1 is more interesting and might be visible to the naked eye from a really dark sky around the same time. In October it seems that it might attain mag 5, but then is in the far northern skies and invisible from Australia.

The most interesting comet encounter I can find in the next decade is the 2018 return of Comet 46P/Wirtanen which is one of the more intrinsically bright short period comets. In December of 2018 it passes just 0.08 AU from the earth, and being a much brighter Comet than 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova, could become quite an obvious naked eye comet. In fact based on the return in 2008 might reach magnitude 3. Although one must remember this will be a somewhat large diffuse comet.

However, more likely the next really nice comet will be one that is not predicted. By really nice comet I mean at least magnitude 3-4 with a bright tail. Such comets appear about every 2 years if recent decades are any indication.

Terry
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