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The mathematical probability of life existing elsewhere is based on a logical fallacy: That because life, intelligent or otherwise, exists here, it MUST exist elsewhere. Yet there is no proof of this, and indeed the opposite is true. Even the oft-quoted aphorism that "anything not forbidden is compulsory", fails to take into account that it need not be compulsory more than once!
As to Conan the Bacterium and his friends: all extremeophiles on earth evolved from earlier organisms which began in much less hostile environments. That doesn't mean that similar organisms have NOT evolved on other planets, in similarly unpleasant circumstances, it just means that its a bad idea to suppose that it HAS evolved.
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