ABC has a story today by Stuart Gary about NEO 1999-RQ36
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Originally Posted by ABC Science
Reporting in the journal Icarus, scientists say the asteroid named 1999-RQ36 has a one-in-a-thousand chance of hitting the Earth in 2182.
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Co-author of the study, Dr Maria Eugenia Sansaturio from Spain's Universidad de Valladolid, says the total impact probability for 1999-RQ36 is estimated to be 0.092%, and that 2182 is the most likely year for an impact to occur.
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Although the orbit of 1999-RQ36 is now well determined, there remains a significant orbital uncertainty because, besides gravity, its path is influenced by the Yarkovsky effect.
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Story here including more about the Yarkovsky effect -
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articl...29/2967908.htm