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Usually the predictions are pretty spot on, are you sure you were logged in and had your location set correctly? Maybe your cookies got corrupted and heaven's above didn't log you in automatically or something? There's like a "default location" that the site uses if you aren't logged in, I think it might be 0,0,0 or something. The iridium flares only trace very narrow paths, roughly every 3km away from the centre you lose an order of magnitude. So for example if you put in "melbourne" but you really live in frankston, which is 30km away, you won't see the -9 flare predicted for Melbourne.
Sorry if you know all this and doublechecked it all..
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