Quote:
Originally Posted by shane.mcneil
Thanks for explaining that Mark. So would that mean that if out thinking occurs on a quantum level, then trends in our thinking would be revealed just as it becomes obvious that the casino is winning?
|
Shane,
In making a prediction, one really needs to differentiate between a specific outcome and an expected outcome or overall trend.
Consider the following ...
A poll of 100000 voters, predict that the Liberal Party will win the next election by a huge margin. The voters in a particular electorate reinstate a Labor Candidate.
In a casino, the game odds are weighted in the house's favour. Generally, the more the games played, the greater the casino's profits. On a one-off night at the casino, a guest bets $100 and wins $10000.
A specific outcome can go against an overall trend.
Photons produced by fusion in the core of the Sun travel a few millimetres before being absorbed and then re-emitted in a random direction. Using a random walk, we can calculate the average "photon travel time" from core to surface. It works out at around 100000 years. The range is anywhere from 10000 to 170000 years. However, it is impossible to pinpoint the actually photon path nor its position at any time t.
Now, consider a boat adrift at sea. In theory, the course of the boat can be plotted. The boat should be headed in a certain direction due to prevailing sea currents and wind patterns. However, in practice, approximation of initial conditions makes the course chaotic. A prediction of the position of the boat over time becomes increasingly less accurate.
The deterministic nature of any system does not make it predictable.
Trends in our thinking do not make our choices in a particular circumstance predictable.
Regards, Rob