NASA probably wont be the first back to the Moon (In my humble opinion). America has too many problems, Is too conservitive to do anything more innovative than an Apollo re-hash, and the American tax payers are probably not that inspired to support such an expensive venture.
The next person on the moon may or may not be American but it will probably be a collabirative effort. I think it highly possible that the next to the moon will be a Russian/Chinese/Indian joint effort and in about 10-15 years.
