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The respective distances are 393km vs 549km, which is about 1:1.4. So if you go the long way and average 100km/h you only need to average 72km/h going the short way to get there in the same time. Even if the first half of the trip (from your place to Lithgow) is slow I can't see it pulling your average down that much. However I have sat in bumper to bumper traffic from Katoomba to Penrith on a Sunday arvo and probably only averaged 20-30km/h.
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