Quote:
Originally Posted by Enchilada
So it wasn't the necessarily the weather or a lightening strike that caused the accident then, as strongly stated in the previous thread?
Good to hear of reasonable the progression of the investigation. Especially important was the recent finding of the beeps of the black boxes, so at least there is a possibility of such grand-scale human tragedy as in this example with the aircraft doesn't happen again.
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Actually the circumstantial information points to ice formation in environments where it was previously thought not possible. So it still seems to be weather related, or at least contributed. The information in the previous thread, pertaining to the alerts of AC and DC systems failures, as well as flight computer and associated hardware anomalies, suggests some sort of electrical influence, even fire (fire and explosion has almost been ruled out from debris evidence though).
The Black Box signals have since proven to be a false alarm. This leaves very little time to run signal sweeps. The tug which is sensing the signal, can only cover 13km (squared I think) per [24hr] day. Then it's searching by braille unfortunately.
If I had to guess, and luckily I don't in an official sense (thank God), I feel we're looking at some unusual series of events, something we haven't see before. Ice formation in the pitot tubes could have given false or sparadic airspeed indications (data supports this), storm cell and turbulence, although not severe in its own right, could cause many false inputs and disorientations. Engine failure under certain icing conditions could easily create big [assymetric] issues. The biggest indicator is the flight computer, its hissy-fit and reverting to semi-manual control says something about the perameters it failed to deal with.
My guess, as unusual as it sounds, is ice formation, as rare as it is at that altitude, it has been reported and severe. It possibly confused the computer by giving high and low airspeed inputs, the plane m have unnecessarily 'hunted' on the [elevator] trims, pitching uncontrollably, it may have given up and stepped down to [semi] pilot control. It may even have retarded or advanced the throttles, in the worse case, advancing the throttles in a dive, but with false low air speed inputs or vice versa. Disorientated, the pilots may have perpetuated the error, trusting the false airspeed low indications.
Cheers
Mark