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i will go for one night as a 95% chance , it drops down to about 50/50 for two, it gets progresively dismal after that.
we are avid weather watchers here and the rainfall has been a smidge less in August than July over the last 5 years. so thats a plus
being a little more pedantic here is a chart of the amount of rain vs raindays by moonphase over several years. and just in case you dont think the moon effects the weather, it does. admittedly along with a billion other things. but it is interesting (sorry i lopped of the first couple of days in the pic)
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