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I think an early risk assessment was 1 hull loss after 100 launches. Then Challenger, and that safety program took the estimate well above 1/100. Guess they were wrong (2 in 126 ??). I think the current safety drive should take them into the 1 in the hundreds. I would ride it.
I have done a lot of reading on the Apollo/Saturn program. From what I recall their risk number were worse than Shuttle.
Last edited by Iddon; 14-07-2005 at 11:02 PM.
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