Quote:
Originally Posted by edwardsdj
I just worked writing software in the petroleum industry for almost five years. A few observations:
1. The days of finding large fields have been over for a couple of decades;
2. The oil companies keep downgrading thier estimates of the oil recoverable from thier reserves (Shell by 30% a few years ago);
3. No major survey by Western oil companies has been done in Saudi since the 1950s - odds are they have far less than they would like to have us believe;
4. The discoveries that are being made are a huge technical challenge (like drilling in 5km of water); and
5. World demand continues to increase every day - particularly from the rapidly growing Chinese economy.
Put all of this together and petrol prices are only going to go up and at an accelerating rate.
How long did it take for petrol to go from 50c/L to $1/L? About a decade I would say.
How long from $1/L to $1.50/L? About six months.
How long from $2/L to $5/L? Probably only a couple of years - no matter how much spin the industry puts on it.
Unlike previous oil shocks which were caused by supply manipulation, it is simply legitimate market forces driving this. Voters are screaming for more roads to ease traffic congestion today. Very soon they will be alarmed at the poor state of the public transport system as we look around at empty roads.
Anyway, my two cents 
Have fun,
Doug |
everything you say makes sense and is quite frankly scary..... collapse of world economies is the likely result as we have an economy that needs oil to run, and no readily viable alternatives exist in usable amounts.
im already paying 1000 dollars a month for fuel, free quotes are going to become a thing of the past as i have to travel to inspect a project.