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I think the last time a schoolboy showed up the professional astronomers was when he pointed out the Universe was getting 'lighter' all the time as all the stars were converting mass to energy.
I agree that the claim that a collision with a satellite would increase the chances of a hit down the track is totally wrong. It is far more likely to decrease the chances.
There are far to many assumptions to even start to get a meaningful estimate.
We would be better off to use Baldricks cunning plan. You know how in war there is a bullet with your name on it. Just put your name on another bullet as the chances of two bullets with your name on them is very low. So catch an asteroid and write EARTH on it!
Bert
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