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That's one of the fun things about astronomy - the uncertainty about something new.
Take the impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into Jupiter in 1994. The effects of each of the individual fragments crashing into Jupiter's atmosphere were far more obvious than what was expected.
Then there's the Supernova, SN 1987A, which we saw explode in the Large Magellanic Cloud, near the Tarantula Nebula, in February 1987. It reached 3rd magnitude...yet it could have been brighter. What happened here was that it was a blue supergiant that exploded, rather than a more normal red supergiant, which would have been brighter.
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