[iceman (Mike)]

An interesting thread and discussion.. some good thought-provoking questions raised, thanks Les.

My take on it:

Originally Posted by ngcles

Will astronomy clubes/societies etc still be relevant and/or growing and why?

Will communities like Ice In Space affect the clubs/societies?

These two are quite relevant to be answered together.

I think clubs/societies will always have a place but I think only the largest and most financially secure will survive. Andrew James pointed out well some of the issues that clubs and societies have to face. Of course that's not limited to astronomical socieities - the same points would be true for a local knitting society or remote control car club.
The growth of the internet, and information available on the internet at a moments notice via websites like IceInSpace - the ability to ask questions and have them answered, show your equipment and/or your images and get feedback and advice from people not just in your local area but from people across Australia and the world, make it a much more attractive prospect to newcomers to the hobby, especially young people who are tech-savvy and to whom the internet and forums are not a scary prospect.

It's no secret that the demographic of amateur astronomers is fairly limited - it's mostly middle-aged or older males, and most of the membership of astro societies are those people. Luckily though the demographic is expanding. More younger people are getting into the hobby and slowly more females too. But will these people join astro societies are will they stick to the internet?

A lot of people are scared of the perceived politics, or us and them attitudes in astronomy societies. So that's why I say that people may stick to online and only the large societies will remain.
But there really is no substitute for hands-on observing and help from other amateurs like you. Astronomy can be a lonely hobby if done alone. It really is much more exciting and rewarding when you can share it with people nearby. So astronomy societies will still have a place, for that reason, but more and more often I think people will end up in local, unstructured observing groups rather than formal clubs and societies, which have the need to form committees and the inherent politics that goes along with that.
Local unstructured observing groups have problems of their own though, such as:
- Where do they observe? Public or private property?
- Who organises it?
- Who is responsible if something goes wrong, someone gets hurt or something gets damaged?
These gathering really are on their own, but they can be extremely rewarding if everything comes together.
There's no substitute for hands-on help for newbies when they're having trouble collimating or finding a target, or even aligning their finderscope.

When people used to want information about astronomy, they'd look up their local club. These days, using google they can find the information they want on the internet or they join forums like IceInSpace and ask the question there. I do believe clubs/societies do need to think about what their future will bring, but ultimately if the persons question is practical, most times we will recommend they join their local club and go to their observing nights to get practical help from experienced people. And simply to meet people who live near them who are interested in the same hobby.

The future for online communities is growing too though. Your latitude and longitude reveals a lot of information. Personalised information such as moon/sun rise/set times, satellite pass information, what planets/objects are visible right are all available in various software packages or on websites. It can also serve as a basis for location-based groups and get-togethers, such as "find who's near me" - a feature that might find people (who want to be contacted) who can help you with a telescope problem, or who you can go observing with.

People will rely on clubs/societies less for what they used to be used for, as they can get so much more information immediately via the internet, but they will still have their place. They will have to adapt though, or they will not survive.

How do you percieve the threat of light pollution -- will it kill us (metaphorically)?

It's definitely a problem. People need to drive further out of the city to get dark skies. Newbies buying telescopes in the city and observing from home may be so disappointed by what they (can't) see, they may get frustrated and give up. If only they had experienced truly dark skies and observing from a dark sky location, they'd be hooked for life.
I see the problem getting worse before it gets better, if it ever does get better. There will always be more lights. Communities grow, new housing estates expanding outside the cities. The only hope is that they change the type of lights they use and shield them from pointing up.

Will the CCD revolution kill visual observing?

Yes and No. Already we can see most newbies want to get into imaging. They want to take pictures of what they see. Almost everyone owns a CCD already, whether it be in their mobile phone, a digicam, and even DSLR's are becoming more common. It's not a great leap to then attach it to a telescope or point it into the eyepiece.
The advancing technology of the CCD and devices like the g-star and other "real-time" imaging cameras and devices like the I3 will become more popular and more affordable. So people can "observe" from their lounge-room and on the TV screen.

What will the "kit" of the amateur astronomer be like?

In one sense, you'd think that with the advances in technology, in the future everyone will own a computerised, motorised scope like the LX200. And that type of scope has certainly been very popular. But for newcomers, the simplicity and affordability of the basic newtonian on a dob mount has a very broad appeal. The low price for a large aperture dobsonian, and through recommendations by websites like IceInSpace, the humble dob has had a huge resurgance lately and I can't see it slowing down. You can fit the technology to it - for example, a dob fitted with an Argo Navis is all the technology you need for observing.
But if, like I said above, CCD imaging is going to become mainstream, then people will need and want tracking. So maybe the dob is at the peak of its curve right now. It's really hard to say.

Will the contribution of amateurs to the science of astronomy change and how?

That's a hard one, and in some way ties in with David Higgins' threads about how amateurs currently contribute to the science of astronomy.
The technology advances in the professional field (larger/more sensitive cameras, wider field surveys, more space-based observatories) will in some way reduce the ability for the amateur to contribute, but on the other hand, the same technology advances (on a lower scale) will also give the amateur more flexibility and ability to contribute.

Will amateur astronomy only be practiced by the well-heeled or will it diversify further?

It has already changed from being a pursuit only available to the wealthy, to being available and affordable to almost everyone. Prices have come down a very long way and large aperture telescopes are can be bought for under $1000. Under $400 for 8" of aperture. That's unheard of as little as 5 years ago.
I imagine there'd have to be a limit to how much more the prices can come down - the number of middle men taking a cut and the cost of shipping and raw manufacturing costs will mean they can't keep coming down for ever.
Just like astronomical societies though, astronomy shops will also have to evolve and adapt to the changing demographic and interests of the future amateur astronomer. Shop front stores will always have a place, people want to see it, feel it, touch it and get advice from experienced shop staff before spending thousands on a piece of equipment.
But for people who know what they want, online astronomy shops and mail-order of equipment is definitely the way of the future. It's already happening right now.

Will amateurs still be making telescopes/equipment?

Yes, but to a lesser extent. Some people still like to make things, it's in their nature. They like to construct.
I believe that more people made their own stuff in the past for the exact reason I stated above - astronomy equipment used to be so much more expensive than it is now.
These days, it would cost considerably more time and money to make your own 8" newt than to buy one.


Some other thoughts, not covered by your questions..

When big astronomical events occur, it gets people outside and looking up. We saw it earlier this year with Comet McNaught, and we saw it the other week with the total lunar eclipse. We will see it in the future with the transit of venus, the total solar eclipse, future manned moon missions, etc.
When big events like this happen, there's always a surge of interest from people who had a passing interest in space or astronomy, to now wanting to take that dive and get right into.
A little media exposure goes a long way.
Amateur astronomy is a hobby like any other. It will have to compete with the many other distractions of a modern world, and try to attract the attention of an impatient public who want instant gratification.