[AJames]

To the question; "Will astronomy clubs/societies etc still be relevant and/or growing and why?"


After many decades being involved with many amateur astronomical societies, I think the astronomical society as such is an irrelevant dying dinosaur, and will be very unrecognisable within the next few decades. In my own view, the concept of the astronomical society has been almost dead for over a decade - applying equally to similar social groups in many different subjects and interests.

My reasoning is as follows:
In Australia, the first of these astronomical groups started in the 1890's. These and were to be usefully started as the go-between between the growing amateur observers and the rising professional astronomers. In those days the need for amateurs was important, as they could watch the skies when they wanted to and observe phenomena away from the rigours of the large observation projects like the important Southern Astrographic Survey, double star measures, etc. Amateurs then were able to contribute in things like searching for comets, and the like, but also had the ability to do it as a passing interest. This then evolved into more of an educational role, where the amateurs became the means of disseminating information to others new to astronomy.
In summary, the only role of any astronomical society is to gather those of like interests so that they can discuss, hear lectures, and learn about their hobby from each other.
However, the rules of this have changed dramatically in the last 10 to 15 years. Technology and access to the Internet can already fulfil many of the traditional roles of astronomical society – even through services like Ice in Space and many others. Now people can discuss their hobby anytime twenty-four hours a day, and do so even some specialised forum that happen to take their own interest.
No longer does astronomical information disseminated through the local Society, but is gained immediately through access of web groups (blogs and web pages), or by profitable commercial enterprises or even the government professional observatories or facilities. If I need to find out say about a new bright comet, like last year's McNaught, I can find out through the media or websites without ever speaking to another person. It is more far cost effective to spend your money on an Internet connection and to be able talk to a world of amateur astronomers, than to waste time getting to and from some astronomical society meeting with only at best dozens or so
Yet the true death-knell of the astronomical society is the costs to become a member and participating. These are both financially and personally – often by having to coping with the limitations imposed on individuals. I.e. The time or date when meetings are available, the topics them members are interested in, etc. etc. As the majority of astronomical societies know, but never discuss why with their members, only roughly 10% are 20% active participants with the rest remaining unseen and unheard.
I think it is because of the structure of the Society itself and the need to elect a yearly-long committee as an authority. Importantly Committees really do need to run and manage the Society, but at the same time, they have to maintain some cohesion and direction among the membership – building teams three or four times beyond the fixed number on the Committee board. Sadly, in my own experience, they can never seem to be able to do both – leaving either the impressions of dictatorial policies and controlling attitudes or conversely the membership with no control just end up as a lasse-faire bunch who get together only to pass the time.
Committees should work together to form the directional core of the group that looks and feels in the background - but often this only ends up with the Committee being the only ones to really benefit from the group facilities or interactions. Experience finds that how this inner group behaves has a direct effect on either joining the other members to the whole group and Society's overall success. Committees will working together nearly always develop good friendships - sometimes surviving beyond the group - which can be perceived by the membership as exclusive and controlling - even if it is not. Often this is highly effective tool, but in the vast majority of cases, it actually dictates the duration that some members will stay or how much they participate - and even the number of members the Society will retain at any point of time. (Those successful astronomical societies, by the way, will have a high turnover of those serving as committee members.)
In my own personal view, the developing of the "us and them" attitude between the Committee and its Membership, and in how strong the division is, will often be the corner-stone of the general happiness or despondency among members. As time goes on, perhaps only one or two years, acts of selflessness will then be replaced by more destructive or negative motives - like doing things for their own benefit, through boosting ego, personal gain, fame, etc. - than for doing things common good of the group. If the members are not interested, then forget them and do things that interest me, for example. Too often, this is base cause for weakening or even dissolution of the Society or its ideals, where others just move on and then do there own thing.
There is also a growing and worrying trend in amateur astronomical ranks with the introduction of university-based education and certificates. This is slowly developing a new underclass of amateur astronomers influencing Society development and leadership within the group. While these courses are still expensive to do for a whole year or six-months, the aim is to produce basic information to mid- to high-educated people. Admittedly, while some personally benefit to the individual, but there are several who want to believe this qualifies them as above others in the amateur ranks who may have more experience or personal drive – and thus really act as semi-professionals. A few have proven to be very influential on the directions of astronomical societies - some good, some quite detrimental.
I think that the future will be in video conferencing or YouTube like presentations. No longer with some professional astronomer come to some astronomical society, but the members will go to these institutions electronically and hear and interact with lectures - on a country or even the global stage. No only is it cost and time effective, it means that work made by the main observatories and institutions can be made to a larger audiences - and will only have to be done once instead of doing several times to different groups.
Observational astronomy will also have to be revised significantly. Apart from the spread of light pollution and expanding population centres, the cost to the environment in regular travelling to distant star parties away from the cities. Already with the costs of petrol, observing away from urban skies is becoming a rich persons game. In the recent past, it has been the single male (and a smaller number of females) without any ties to family commitments who are dominate in this domain. Those in committed relationships and children remain in the minority, and those who passionately participate have one partner who started observing before they were in a committed relationship. The change has already started with the current rise of the costs of living; I.e. Food, Housing, travel costs; and observers having to cut corners to do what they want.
I could say a lot more, but I am very interested in what others have to say on the topic...

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Andrew