well it hasn't arrived yet! so your spot on mr Bob
local midnight tonight could be interesting
PS note: when I say southern skies, I mean that very generally, usually I find, the earlier in the night, I have even seen action due west (once briefly even n/w!)or S/W, straight after sunset, as the night progresses it swings more magnetic south, and just before dawn, they can even take on a s/e orientation. remember magnetic south is actually in the S/S/W for us here, as you all well know.
if there is such a thing as a one stop rough guide for predicting elevated activity, then this would be it,
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots/kp.html
the kp values - if it hits 6, then activity is probably visible for Tassie and NZ, if it climbs to 7/8 and over, than far southern mainland Australia has a good chance of visible activity - and activity, if any, could come in fits and spurts, as per usual.
The kp values would be about at least 90% accurate as rough guide, but it is only in 3 hour blocks in graph, so it is delayed, but look for climbing values prior.