Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis
I just downloaded (23/05/2025) the current set of orbital elements for 2025 KF using The Sky X Pro and then performed an Image Link using the image I took on 21/05/2025, then compared the two plots in The Sky X Pro.
“Missed it by that much” according to Maxwell Smart. 
The results now indicate a difference of just under 1 degree between the latest plotted position in TSX for 21/05/2025, (purple rectangle), at the time I captured the image, and the actual position in my image (white rectangle) on 21/05/2025, 2 days ago.
One of the Moderator’s on CN wrote:
“Such an anomaly is common once a small body approaches the Earth/Moon system. The strength of our gravity can create significant perturbations in a minor body's path, making orbital elements from even an hour in the past to be approximations at best.
JPL's Horizons, by contrast, solves the multiple-body problem at each step along the minor planet's path, taking the Earth and Moon into account as perturbers”.
Dennis. |
When we were trying to catch 2012 DA14, various astro planetarium programs were showing vastly different positions. As Denis said, NASA Horizons is the bees knees. I believe it is the same underlying software as used to predict orbital paths of solar system spacecraft. The other problem for NEO's is parallax. Many astro planetarium programs calculate geocentric positions. Providing you provide your location, NASA JPL Horizons determines topocentric position calculations.
The other one is the IAU Minor Planet & Comet Ephemeris Service
https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/MPEph/MPEph.html
Using this service, you can generate a set of orbital elements based on the most recent observations and enter them as a new object in your favourite planetarium software.
Joe