La Niņa is not back. Well not yet, in any case.
The El Niņo–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are the criteria actually measured, is currently neutral.
The ENSO Outlook, which is the forecast, is currently at 'Inactive', meaning an El Niņo or La Niņa is not underway.
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Originally Posted by BOM
Both Bureau and international climate models suggest ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. El Niņo and La Niņa predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year, meaning that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.
Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and March 2024, with April 2024 SSTs currently tracking warmer than April 2023. The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global pattern of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO variability. As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences of how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable.
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On 30th April, ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders provided a lengthy article
explaining the current wet weather over southern Australia in terms of
a "blocking high", the name given to a high-pressure system that stalls
from several days to several weeks, and blocks the typical eastward
movement of weather. As Tim says :-
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom Saunders, meteorologist, ABC
While some blocks lead to warm and sunny weather, this week's pattern will bring cool and showery weather to the NSW coast, intensifying into areas of heavy rain this weekend which may even culminate in another bout of flooding.
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Article including graphics here :-
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-...-nsw/103782106
BOM ESNO Climate Driver Update :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
BOM ESNO Outlook :-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/