Hi Pat,
Quote:
Originally Posted by gaseous
Thanks Les, I get the impression you've been emotionally scarred/let down by comets in the past!  It would be nice to get a decent naked eye comet in the southern hemisphere. |
Hmmm ... no but as a long-time amateur and also being formerly part of the media, I am sick to death of the hyperventilation one sees in the MSM every time a promising comet rolls around and it is instantly dubbed the "Comet of the Century" etc etc.
Instance one: C/1973 E1 Kohoutek that was such an incredible fizzer. When the media hypes these things up on a slow news day the public (and the interwebs) are whipped into a clicking frenzy and
if it becomes a fizzer, the public blame the astronomers, not the media -- then next time don't listen.
Three years after Kohoutek C/1975 V1 (West) turned up. Nobody listened to the astronomers and the public missed the best comet in a decade or so.
There have been a dozen others in between then and now. Hyakutake, Hale-Bopp and McNaught were all very bright comets that most of the public missed -- because they weren't listening to the astronomers and for some reason the media didn't pick up on them. The recent 2022 ZTF was hyped to billy-oh on a few slow news days and while it was a "nice comet" it was a complete let-down for the public because it was over-hyped.
The caveats are important at the moment. The orbit looks pretty well nailed-down but beyond that a lot of things are governed by variables we can't estimate very well at this point in time.
Suffice to say, this is a very promising looking prospect -- no guarantees.
Best,
L.