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Originally Posted by Laura Chung and Miki Perkins, Sydney Morning Herald August 2, 2022 — 5.10pm

Australia is likely to receive more heavy rain in late winter and into spring after the Bureau of Meteorology declared a negative Indian Ocean Dipole was under way in the nation’s north-west.


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It also brings a high chance of above-average rainfall over large areas of Australia in late winter and spring.

“We are seeing one of those developing this week, thanks to a strong cold front linking up with tropical moisture,” said Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino.

This is the second negative IOD in a row, with the same weather pattern occurring last year. This is only the second time a negative IOD has occurred back-to-back since reliable records began in 1960.

“This has coincided with back-to-back La Niña events as well,” Domensino said. “Australia, at the moment, is stuck in this prolonged period of wet phase climate drivers – the broadscale patterns that influence our weather.”

The outlook for eastern NSW and eastern Queensland, which have been inundated with recent rains, is for above-average rain in the coming months, both because of the IOD and the La Niña weather pattern.

As the north-west cloud bands drift across the continent, most of the rain will fall on the western side of the Great Dividing Range, a different weather pattern to that which has caused flooding in Sydney and other regions over the past eight months.

It may also reach some areas of southern NSW and northern Victoria that have had below-average rainfall this year.


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NSW SES spokesman Greg Nash said the worst of the wet weather was likely to hit on Wednesday and into Thursday, with some areas to receive between 20 and 50 millimetres of rain.

“The forecast that has been provided to us is that there is going to be substantial rains coming up around the western slopes and around the ACT,” he said. “The SES is preparing by moving additional resources into those areas.”

The BOM previously warned that saturated soil from recent rainfall events, as well as full water systems – including most dams around NSW above 70 per cent capacity – would exacerbate flooding risks. It will be several more months until the agency can declare a third successive La Niña event, but there is a 50 per cent chance one could occur.

Full story here :-
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/w...02-p5b6ni.html