Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainmaker
That is a worrying trend, unfortunately I think we're well past the point of no return. Extreme weather events are going to be the new normal and we as a people are directly responsible for them......
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We passed the point of no return about 20-25 years ago. No turning back.
However while some of what Sil (Steve) is correct about low lying areas along the entire east and south coast including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne turning into a string of islands, it won't happen quickly, not even with recent developments in the Arctic and Antarctic. The historically fastest deglaciations occurred at rates of around 4-5 m per century. But this was low latitude deglaciation of ice age glacial advance caused by those glaciers being subject to higher insolation. Current polar caps are in darkness half the year.
Best current estimates are that it will take around 5000 years for 50 m of sea level rise due to polar melt. What will happen on a much shorter timescale, and we are already seeing it is that the number of normal years between extremes of heatwaves/firestorms and high rainfalls and floods will reduce and these extremes of weather will dominate.
If you download the 1990 IPCC report, it gives the following prediction for the average change across the entire Australian continent. But note the last statement, in bold.
"The warming ranges from 1 to 2°C in summer and is about 2°C in winter. Summer precipitation increases by around 10%, but the models do not produce consistent estimates of the changes in soil moisture.
The area averages hide large variations at the sub-continental level." In addition to dark skies, I chose my retirement property location to be both fire and flood risk averse. We do get tornados in the region :-(