Quote:
Originally Posted by Exfso
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Took the underlying data from this on Mar 10th and plotted it up (all the data is available on GitHub).
The Mainland China data is significant in that the government basically forced social distancing. Based on the Chinese reaction to the virus, it fits a logistic function pretty well with a=100 and b=.0.25 (in case you want to confirm my calculation).
Assuming… China = 1.386 billion, world total is 7.53 billion, we should expect to level out at 438,745 cases globally… *
IF* the rest of the world does what China and Italy have done (i.e. sequester the population).
Assuming a 3.5% mortality, I’d expect 15356 deaths.