Thread: Tabloid media.
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Old 13-03-2020, 03:58 PM
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Paul Haese
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I have it on good authority we have not seen the peak yet and will not see the peak for quite some time. My sister who is a senior scientist immunologist for a large Pharma Firm in the US says that transmission rates are still unknown and vary region to region. The large firms are concerned that the virus is more wide spread that is being stated or test results show. The WHO is now very concerned that not enough is being done to manage the problem. Hence why they have declared a pandemic. Testing in the US is thousands less than what it should be per day. Australia is doing better but still way behind. South Korea is about right at 4000+ tests per day.

Right now there are 134K cases. Yesterday is was 125K cases. That is 9000 cases over night. Italy has 3000 new cases over night. Now at 15,000. Iran, S. Korea, Spain, France and Germany are all in the 2000+ cases now. Australia today has 156 cases. The lack of testing simply because people might not consider the symptoms they have (there is a cold getting around at present, I have had it and wondered if I had contracted the virus; likely not but still I wondered) as being necessitating a test. Not to mention that the test costs money in countries like the US. It is therefore highly likely that the virus is roaming rampant around many countries right now. Even more than you think here. You cannot simply use raw data to extrapolate what is going on.

You need to do an R0 calculation to see that right now it is highly unknown when the peak will be. Fortunately the Chinese took drastic steps to halt transmission in their country, otherwise it would right now be in the tens of millions affected and deaths would be shocking now. Many other countries have not yet done enough to halt transmission. This is ultimately the problem and countries like Australia are still just talking about advice and not acting. Locking down cities and regions is the way to burn it out now.

I hope you are right Peter but I suspect that you are not. The beast has the potential to kill many and mutate for a second round. If it mutates we'll never get a hold of it. It will be like the flu but on steroids.